Number of landlords 'unknown' as RTB and CSO figures differ

For several years, the RTB’s data has suggested the number of rentals in Ireland is shrinking. However, Census data suggests the real figure has in fact expanded greatly. Picture: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

It is "of significant concern" that there appears to be no definitive data regarding the size of the Irish rental market, according to a leading academic.

It has emerged since the publication of the 2022 Census that a major discrepancy exists between the number of tenancies noted in that five-year report and the number of rentals officially registered with the Residential Tenancies Board.

For several years, the RTB’s data has suggested the number of rentals in Ireland is shrinking. However, Census data suggests the real figure has in fact expanded greatly.

“This suggests that non-registration is a significant concern,” Dr Michael Byrne of the UCD school of social policy, will tell the Oireachtas committee on housing today.

“The current size of the private rental sector, and whether or not it is growing or shrinking, is unknown,” Dr Byrne is expected to say, adding “further research was required to address this uncertainty, as it has crucial implications for policy”.

He will say much of the commentary regarding the so-called phenomenon of ‘landlords fleeing the market’, a factor which has formed a key consideration for the Department of Housing in its policy formulation, “is based on a mis-interpretation of the data”.

The Census data released earlier in the summer states there are 330,000 households in the private rental sector, a 7% increase in the number of tenancies since 2016 and some 54,000 more than is accounted for in the RTB’s data, which has shown a consistent fall in the number of registered tenancies over the same seven-year period.

Discrepancy

Dr Byrne will note the discrepancy may be explained to some extent by the fact the Census is filled out by the tenant and not the landlord.

He will say another possible explanation is the fact “more landlords are deciding not to register their tenancies".

That registration is now an annual requirement for all landlords.

Dr Byrne will say the evidence of a sample of tenancies he investigated in conjunction with tenants’ advocacy body Threshold is that of 146 tenancies considered, some 76, or 52%, were not registered with the RTB.

He will say further the State has no accurate data on the number of landlords entering and exiting the market and the net level of investment in the market.

“In relation to the number of landlords exiting the sector, there is some data already in the public domain on this issue, published by real estate agents and other market actors,” Dr Byrne will say. 

“These reports are concerning, in particular because sale of property typically results in the termination of a tenancy. However, in terms of official data it is very hard to assess the extent to which small landlords are indeed ‘fleeing the market’."

While notices of termination have increased markedly over the past 18 months in particular, that should be caveated, Dr Byrne will say, by the fact eviction bans were in place for much of the time period under consideration, and a change in legislation which meant that from 2022 notices of termination were not deemed valid unless registered officially with the RTB.

Separately, the director of the RTB will tell the same committee he and his organisation “share the concern” regarding the differences between the RTB’s data and that of the CSO, and that the CSO will commence an “analytical exercise” to probe the causes of those differences next month.