‘Virtually certain’ extreme Antarctic events will get worse without drastic action

Seals are seen on floes off Horseshoe Island as the floes melt due to global climate change in Antarctica last year. Antarctic land ice — which contributes to sea level rise when it melts — has declined since the 1990s. Photo: Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

It is “virtually certain” that future extreme events in Antarctica will be worse than the extraordinary changes already observed, according to a new scientific warning that stresses the case for immediate and drastic action to limit global heating.

A new review draws together evidence on the vulnerability of Antarctic systems, highlighting recent extremes such as record low sea ice levels, the collapse of ice shelves, and surface temperatures up to 38.5C above average over East Antarctica in 2022 — the world’s largest ever recorded heatwave.