Free GP care could cost up to €881m

Irish Medical Organisation’s GP committee chairman Denis McCauley: 'What it will mean is waiting lists in general practice, full stop.' Picture: NW Newspix

Rolling out free GP care to the entire population by 2026 could cost anywhere from €381m to €881m.

New research from the ESRI published today examined two potential scenarios where the extension of free GP care is based on either age or income.

It found the lowest potential cost to the State would be under the age-based approach which starts at €381m, compared to the income-based one which starts at €462m.

One reason is that the process would be more straightforward as there would be no need to means test if eligibility was based on the individual's age.

The research assumed a lower uptake rate associated with the income-based extension to eligibility as there would be clearer guidelines around eligibility and less social stigma which may be associated with qualifying under income.

Age-based care

Where free GP care is extended on the basis of age, the projected number of visits in 2026 would increase from 20.4m to 22.7m. In comparison, the estimated number of visits in the income-based scenario would rise to 22.3m.

Aside from examining the costs associated with the move towards universal healthcare, as recommended in the Sláintecare report, consideration must be given as to whether GPs could cope with the increased pressure.

The ESRI research, funded by the Department of Health, said it is "not clear if there are a sufficient number of GPs available to meet this additional demand".

Even if eligibility for a GP visit card were to remain the same as it is today, the number of people qualifying for the scheme is set to increase from 2.2m to 2.6m between 2022 and 2035 due to the increasing number of people aged 70 and over.

"If there are not a sufficient number of GPs to meet the additional demand... while financial barriers to access may be removed, other barriers (including long waits or no availability) could equally hinder access, thereby undermining the universality of the system," the report states.

These sentiments are echoed by the Irish Medical Organisation’s GP committee chairman Denis McCauley.

"What it will mean is waiting lists in general practice, full stop," he said.

By way of example, Dr McCauley said that an increase in demand will see more patients seeking a GP on any given day than the doctor is capable of seeing. As a result, a decision will need to be made about which patients are urgent and which are not.

Mistakes will be made, he said, serious health consequences are being generated by this decision.

Dr McCauley predicted a rollout of free GP care to all would push more GPs into early retirement and even more young doctors to leave the country.

He accused the Government of making decisions on a whim in order to garner short-term approval from the public and said the next health minister would rue the decision.

In terms of the benefits for the individual, it is unclear how much people will save if the plan goes ahead.

The ESRI report shows that while a GP visit may be free this could lead to a rise in spending on prescription drugs.

More frequent doctor's visits will likely lead to purchasing more prescription drugs with the majority of non-medical card holders required to pay for items up to a value of €80 per month.