World headed for 'uncharted territory of destruction', warns new climate report
Fossil fuel emission rates are now above pre-pandemic levels after a temporary Covid-19[/url] lockdown drop, according to the United in Science report. File picture: AP /Mark Schiefelbein
The world is headed into "uncharted territory of destruction" because of global warming, with greenhouse gas emissions at record highs, and one of the next five years likely to be the warmest ever.
A bleak prognosis from a new multi-agency report headed by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned of a "huge gap between aspirations and reality" when it came to climate change.
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise to record highs, and fossil fuel emission rates are now above pre-pandemic levels after a temporary Covid-19 lockdown drop, according to the United in Science report.
UN secretary-general António Guterres said: "This year’s United in Science report shows climate impacts heading into uncharted territory of destruction. Yet each year we double-down on this fossil fuel addiction, even as the symptoms get rapidly worse."
As emissions continue to go in the wrong direction, the report said the ambition of emissions reduction pledges for 2030 needs to be seven times higher to be in line with the 1.5C goal of the Paris Agreement.
The 1.5C figure refers to the limit of warming compared to the pre-industrial age that the world must adhere to in order to avoid catastrophic climate change, scientists have repeatedly said.
The likelihood of the annual temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years is 48% and is increasing with time, while there is a 93% probability that at least one year in the next five will be warmer than the record of 2016, the United in Science report warned.
It comes as researchers separately found Ireland's goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and beyond is looking increasingly unlikely.
University of Limerick and University of Galway researchers modelled a range of scenarios to measure the robustness of Ireland's plans for balancing greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere and those taken out.
They found that in 850 modelled scenarios, just 128 reached net zero in agriculture, forestry, and other land use. However, extending the modelling to 2100, a mere 40 out of the 850 scenarios, or just 5%, maintained net zero status.
Lead author Dr Colm Duffy, of UL's school of engineering, said: “Successful scenarios demanded substantial cattle herd reduction, a dramatic increase in rates of afforestation, and re-wetting most drained organic soils."
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