Europe's summer temperatures could top 50C

Wildfires engulfing parts of Madonie near Palermo in Sicily last August. Picture: Salvatore Cavalli/AP

Temperatures in parts of Europe could top 50C in the coming years, increasing the risk of intense heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires which hit the continent last summer.

That is according to EU scientists who said the temperatures of 48.8C in Italy and 47C in Spain recorded last year could go higher given the nature of climate change and extreme weather patterns.

The European Commission-backed Copernicus Climate Change Service said in its annual European State of the Climate report that the continent experienced the warmest summer on record in 2021, at 1C above the 1991-2020 average.

The Mediterranean experienced an intense and prolonged heatwave in July and August, Copernicus said, with several countries, including Turkey, Greece, and Italy experiencing severe wildfires that destroyed hundreds of thousands of hectares of land. Regions were also hit by drought while populations suffered extreme heat stress. In the affected parts, the heatwave lasted for two to three weeks.

Asked by the Irish Examiner if the temperature could exceed 50C in the near future in Europe, Copernicus senior scientist and report lead author Freja Vamborg said: “We’re not necessarily in the business of extrapolating into the future, mainly focusing on monitoring what has happened, but of course, as temperatures warm, not only are the average temperatures expected to increase, but so are the maximums.

48.8C in not that far away from 50C, and the 48.8C was already 0.8C warmer than the previous European record. I won’t give a timeframe, but, for sure, this is not going to be the last temperature record we’ve seen in Europe.”

Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service: '2021 was a year of extremes, including the hottest summer in Europe.' File picture 

Overall, the continent saw a year of contrasts, with an earlier-than-usual start to spring before reverting to a late frost, impacting agriculture before the hot summer, Copernicus said.

There was also record rainfall in parts of Europe, which led to some of the most devastating floods ever experienced in the likes of Germany and Belgium.

Ireland was among the countries most impacted as north-western Europe experienced wind speeds below the norms, Copernicus said.

That had a knock-on effect for renewable energy generation, with some countries seeing the lowest or second-lowest annual wind speeds in at least 43 years.

Global concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane, which cause greenhouse-gas emissions, continued to increase, the data shows. There was an especially large rise in atmospheric methane concentration.

Carlo Buontempo, the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service said: “2021 was a year of extremes, including the hottest summer in Europe, heatwaves in the Mediterranean, flooding and wind droughts in western Europe, showing that the understanding of weather and climate extremes is becoming increasingly relevant for key societal sectors. Accurate climate information is more important than ever before to help us make informed decisions.”

Mauro Facchini, head of Earth observation at the Directorate General for Defence Industry and Space of the European Commission, said: “Scientific experts like the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] have warned that we are running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5C.

This report stresses the urgent necessity to act as climate-related extreme events are already occurring in Europe. 

The UN-backed IPCC has warned the world is in a “now or never” situation when getting to grips with human-induced global warming. 

Its latest report warned the next three years would be the most critical in recent global history if “unprecedented heatwaves, terrifying storms, and widespread water shortages” are to be avoided.