Nphet predicts 2,000 hospitalisations in January in worst-case scenario

“About one-third of the cases now being reported can be attributed to Omicron,” said Dr Tony Holohan on Friday. Picture: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

The Omicron variant now makes up 35% of cases here, the chief medical officer Tony Holohan has said and it is expected to dominate in less than a week.

Modelling for potential scenarios shows between 8,000 and 20,000 new cases per day depending on the restrictions and reductions in contact in place.

Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the epidemiological modelling group, said it also shows “our most optimistic projection would be for between 650 and 1000 people in hospital in early January.” He said the “more pessimistic” scenarios could see over 2,000 people in hospitals.

“About one-third of the cases now being reported can be attributed to Omicron,” Dr Holohan said on Friday.

Up to Wednesday the proportion of cases estimated as Omicron stood at 35.4%, and they expect this to increase at a high rate as in Denmark and the UK.

Analysis shows cases are dropping among children aged five to 12, but rising among those aged 19 to 24 and 24 to 34. Dr Holohan said these are “likely” to be Omicron.

The growth rate is estimated at between 20% and 40% meaning it is up to four times more contagious than the Delta variant.

This high growth rate, Dr Holohan said, means even if Omicron causes less severe illness as is being speculated, it will cause such high case numbers inevitably severe illness will also happen for large numbers of people.

The briefing heard that without the protection against severe disease given by vaccines, those numbers “would be even higher”.

Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory said it is not possible yet to say whether people will need a fourth shot or when.

Data presented from research by the UK Health Security Agency shows the AstraZeneca vaccine gives “effectively zero” protection against infection with Omicron, and the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine protection is “reduced by at least 35%”.

However the UKHSA found a booster with an mRNA vaccine – either Pfizer or Moderna – then “restores effectiveness to at least 70%”. This data fed into the modelling scenarios.

Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, urged everyone eligible for a booster to take this up, and for pregnant women to still consider getting their first doses if they have not already.

A public link to slides shown at the briefing by Prof Nolan is available on https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/4b505-slides-from-the-nphet-press-briefings/