Ireland could see Covid-19 death toll reach 8,000 by March
According to the modelling carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Ireland could potentially see a further 2,326 lives lost over the next three months. Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins
The number of Covid-related deaths in Europe could reach 2.2 million by March 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned.
To date, over 1.5 million people in the region have lost their lives to the virus with daily reported deaths reaching nearly 4,200 a day by the end of September.
According to the modelling carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Ireland could potentially see a further 2,326 lives lost over the next three months.
The data projects that the country will be coming up on 8,000 deaths by March 1 next year. However, their projections have Ireland at 5,721 deaths by today (November 23) which is 112 more than the current reported deaths.
The data indicated that daily deaths will peak in the first few days of the new year.
WHO has also warned of the extreme stress on hospital beds and intensive care units between now and March 2022.
Modelling shows that Ireland will see a peak in hospitalisations and admissions to ICU on Christmas Eve.
WHO said that driving factor behind the current high levels of transmission across the region is that many countries have led people believe that Covid-19 is no longer an emergency threat and have relaxed measures.
Another factor is the large number of unvaccinated people and the reduced vaccine-induced protection against infection and mild disease which has left many people vulnerable to the virus.
“As we approach the end of 2021, let’s do everything we can by getting vaccinated and taking personal protective measures, to avoid the last resort of lockdowns and school closures,” Dr Kluge commented.
"We know through bitter experience that these have extensive economic consequences and a pervasive negative impact on mental health, facilitate interpersonal violence and are detrimental to children’s well-being and learning."
A "vaccine plus" approach is needed in order to steer away from the worst case scenarios being predicted, said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe.
"All of us have the opportunity and responsibility to help avert unnecessary tragedy and loss of life, and limit further disruption to society and businesses over this winter season," he said.
The vaccine plus approach involves getting the two doses of the vaccine and the booster, if eligible, and incorporating protective measures such as social distancing and mask wearing into daily life.
Over one billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine have been administered in the WHO European Region with 53.5% of people double jabbed.
However, the discrepancy between countries is vast with completed vaccinations ranging from under 10% to over 80% of the total population.
In a bid to drive up the vaccination rates, WHO says it is important to acknowledge and address the reasons why people have chosen not to receive the vaccine.
Countries must work more closely with behavioral and cultural scientists to understand whether these are systemic barriers to access, or individual and community concerns.
Vaccination has saved hundreds of thousands of lives, prevented countless hospitalisations, and lessened the strain on health care systems since being introduced less than one year ago, WHO said in a statement on Tuesday. WHO/Europe and ECDC will be releasing further data on this later this week.
While current projections may seem bleak, Dr Kluge said it is important not to lose hope.
“Today, the Covid-19 situation across Europe and Central Asia is very serious. We face a challenging winter ahead, but we should not be without hope, because all of us – governments, health authorities, individuals – can take decisive action to stabilize the pandemic."
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