Cut social contacts by 30% to stop Covid-19 spread, warns Nolan

Pictured Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group. Photograph: Leah Farrell / RollingNews.ie

Cut your social contacts by 30% to stop the spread of Covid-19 in the community.

That is the message from Professor Philip Nolan, chair of Nphet's epidemiological modelling group, who said Ireland's r-number is now "around 1.2" but could grow sharply.

His warning follows the unusual step taken by Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan who issued a statement overnight on Saturday night, warning people to use PCR tests over antigen tests, and reiterated the importance of mask-wearing, ventilation and social distancing in reducing the spread of the virus.

Health officials on Sunday confirmed 4,181 new cases of the virus. That followed 5,959 cases, which were announced on Saturday. There were 669 people in hospital with Covid-19 this morning, including 125 in ICUs.

This comes as the number of Covid patients in University Hospital Limerick has reached 50. It is 37 in Cork University Hospital (CUH) and 26 in University Hospital Kerry (UHK) according to the HSE.

The situation in all ICUs remains serious, with the HSE having just 17 adult beds available, with none in CUH or UHK on Saturday evening.

Pictured Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group. Photograph: Leah Farrell / RollingNews.ie

Professor Nolan called on the public to “think and act positively.” 

Vaccination and public health measures have reduced the reproduction rate of the virus to “around 1.2” he said, and without mitigation, this could be between 6 and 8.

“This is a huge, sustained and very successful collective effort, preventing a lot of transmissions, but an R of 1.2 is a growth rate of around 4% per day, enough to get us from 2000 cases per day to 4400 cases per day in 3 weeks,” he posted on social media on Sunday.

Prof Nolan called on the public to make changes immediately.

“If we can reduce our close social contacts by 30%, and/or mitigate the risks of those social contacts by 30%,” he said.

“We will have done enough to see the level of infection, case numbers and ultimately hospitalisations decline.” 

Pressure also continues on Covid-19 swabbing centres and laboratories, despite new centres opening, including at Cork Airport, in the last few days.

Last night, 145 tests were available in Dunmanway but all other Cork centres were full for online booking. The situation varied widely, with 139 appointments available in Tralee and 200 in Limerick, but none in Waterford or any of Dublin's eight centres.

Dr Cliona Ni Cheallaigh, consultant in general medicine and infectious diseases consultant at St James Hospital in Dublin said every winter is tough for Irish hospitals but the pressure posed by Covid-19 could exacerbate conditions. There are actions which can help, she said.

“If we can encourage anyone who’s not been vaccinated to get vaccinated, (try) understanding why they’re not being vaccinated and doing what we can” she said.

Dr Ui Cheallaigh said it is important pregnant women are supported to consider vaccination as Covid can be “disastrous for mum and baby.” 

She also said: “I would be looking at the schools. We need to keep schools open, what can we to reduce the risks?” This should include improved ventilation, wearing masks and vaccination if approved for under-12s, she said.