Fewer than two workers per elderly person in some regions by 2050

The number of people of a working age — those aged between 15 and 64 — compared to the number of elderly people at an age when they are generally economically inactive is continually decreasing across the EU.

There will be fewer than two working-age adults for each elderly person in the regions of the EU by 2050, with the bloc's older population increasing dramatically since the turn of the century.

According to Eurostat, the data analysis arm of the European Commission, the old-age dependency ratio in the EU has increased noticeably in the last 20 years.

Eurostat defines the old-age dependency ratio as the number of elderly people at an age when they are generally economically inactive, such as 65 and over, compared to the number of people of working age, or between 15 and 64.

"In 2001, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio was 25.9%, meaning there were slightly fewer than four adults of working age for every person aged 65 years or more. 

"Fast-forward to January 1, 2020, the ratio increased to 34.8%, meaning there were slightly fewer than three adults of working age for every person aged 65 years or more," it said.

In Ireland, the old-age dependency ratio is highest in Connacht, parts of Munster such as Clare, Tipperary, and Waterford, as well as Wexford in Leinster and Ulster counties such as Donegal.

According to Eurostat data, the old-age dependency ratio in these areas is between 27.5% and 32.5%. 

In areas such as Cork and Kerry, Dublin, and Midlands counties such as Kildare, the ratio is under 27.5%. 

The highest concentrations of old-age dependency in the EU are starkly pronounced within inner France, parts of Greece and eastern Germany, the northwest of Spain, and eastern Finland. 

In those regions, the old-age dependency ratio exceeds 50%. 

Large swathes of regional Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Portugal are in the next rung, with ratios between 42.5% and 50%.

"Most of these regions were predominantly rural, mountainous, or relatively remote, where it is likely that younger people have left the region to continue their studies or look for jobs," Eurostat said.

Evrytania, a mountainous region in central Greece, recorded the highest old-age dependency ratio of all within Europe at 78.3%, followed by the north-western Belgian region of Arr Veurne at 64.6%, and the German region of Suhl, Kreisfreie Stadt, at 61.3%.

"Over the next three decades, old-age dependency ratios are projected to increase in all 1,169 EU regions, except for Harz, the westernmost region of Sachsen-Anhalt, in Germany."

At EU level, the ratio is projected to reach 56.7% by 1 January 2050, when there will be fewer than two working-age adults for each elderly person. 

"The projections indicate that the old-age dependency ratio will have risen to at least 50% in the vast majority — 974 — of EU regions," Eurostat said.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic struck, life expectancy in the EU had increased to just over 81 years by 2019; provisional estimates for 2020 indicate an overall fall.