'We wish it was all over but it's not': Daily Covid cases over 2,000 for first time since January

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the “real concern” is that there is “an underlying established pattern of exponential growth”.

A further 2,074 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed this afternoon as vaccinations underway for 12 to 15 year olds.

This is the first time the daily figure has been over 2,000 since January 21.

There are currently 229 Covid patients in hospital, of which 43 are in ICU.

Over 10,000 cases of the virus have been reported in the last week with incidence rising across the 26 counties.

The rising number of Covid cases is “very different from January”, but it is a “real concern”, a public health official has said.

Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said incidence is rising across all age groups, in every part of the country.

“We have had more than 2000 cases on only 21 of the 532 days since we reported the first case here,” he said in a post on Twitter.

“This is very different from January. Vaccination is preventing an enormous number of transmissions, and is reducing the severity of disease in the minority who become infected despite vaccination. Nonetheless, the rising incidence is a real concern.” 

He added: “We are starting to see incidence rise, albeit from very low levels, in those aged 65 and older.” 

However, Prof Nolan said the “real concern” is that there is “an underlying established pattern of exponential growth”.

Cases are growing at about 3.7% per day since June 19, while hospital numbers are growing at a similar rate of 4% since early July.

The growth in hospital numbers is “not sustainable”, he added.

“Vaccines work, but we need to continue to be cautious with this virus, and to protect ourselves and each other with some basic public health measures. We’re tired, and we wish it was all over, but it’s not. Look after each other,” he said.

“Get your vaccine, be very careful until you are fully protected (7-14 days after final dose), and when vaccinated, remember the basics: self-isolate if symptomatic, good respiratory and hand hygiene, keep your distance, masks if appropriate, avoid crowds, ventilation.”

Vaccines preventing at least 10,000 cases every week - Dr Ronan Glynn

The average number of people with Covid being admitted to hospital per day was seven at the beginning of July. This has now risen to 31 admissions per day.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Dr Ronan Glynn says incidence is particularly high in Donegal, Monaghan, Mayo, Galway, Roscommon, Louth and Cavan.

It is also rising across all age groups although particularly among those aged between 16 and 29 years.

Dr Glynn urged people not to become complacent and to continue doing everything they can to deny the virus the opportunity to transmit.

"Unfortunately, all of this disease activity means that some people are becoming very unwell," he said.

The average number of people with Covid being admitted to hospital per day was seven at the beginning of July. This has now risen to 31 admissions per day.

At the beginning of July, less than one person was being admitted to ICU on per day. Over the last week, this has risen to four admissions to ICU per day.

There is some positive news in Dr Glynn's update as almost 80% of adults are now fully vaccinated.

"This is having a real and significant impact on the disease profile here, with vaccines now preventing at least 10,000 cases and about 500 hospital admissions every week," he said.

"If we didn't have vaccination, our current 14-day incidence would be approximately 1,000 per 100,000 and we would be seeing up to 50 people admitted to hospital for every 1,000 cases reported."

As things stand currently there are approximately 20 people admitted to hospital for every 1,000 cases.

Dr Glynn said we are seeing the real world effectiveness of the vaccines as without vaccinations - coupled with public health measures - society would not be able to reopen and stay open as it has over the past couple of months.