Covid wave among young people 'will cause severe illness and complications in sizable minority' 

Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan. File Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

A new wave of Covid-19 cases will cause "severe illness and long-term complications in a sizable minority" of young people, the Chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet's) Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has warned.

In a Twitter thread, Professor Philip Nolan said that the current virus growth rate here was between 5 and 7%, which would see daily cases double over the next 10 to 15 days.

Though the wave “will not translate into severe disease and mortality in the same way as before”, he said cases were on the rise across all demographics.

The ratio of hospital admissions to cases was now 16 admissions per 1,000 cases. 

“While cases are concentrated in older teenagers and younger adults, we are beginning to see an increase in incidence across other age groups, including those aged 65 and older,” he said.

Prof Nolan said the virus incidence rate in the 16-29 age group was now rising at a rate steeper than was recorded in October of last year.

He said most counties now had a seven-day incidence rate "significantly" greater than 50% of their 14-day incidence rate, indicating rapid virus transmission. 

Incidence varies by county, but most counties have a 7-day incidence significantly greater than 50% of their 14-day incidence, indicating rapid growth in those counties. 7/9 pic.twitter.com/FtbCdkurfi

— Professor Philip Nolan (@PhilipNolan_MU) July 19, 2021

"We need to limit transmission," he said. 

"A wave of infections in young people will cause severe illness and long-term complications in a sizeable minority, and will break through the protection of vaccination to cause dangerous infections in older and vulnerable people."

He urged those not yet fully vaccinated to socialise outdoors and to maintain social distancing.

Anyone with any symptoms should isolate and arrange a Covid-19 test, he added.

Prof Nolan was speaking as a further 1,071 cases were confirmed on Monday night.

Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan said that the national 14-day incidence - currently 235 per 100,000 population - and the five-day case average of 1,159 were both now at high points not seen since February. 

The number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 yesterday also rose above 100 for the first time since May.

As of Monday morning, there were 101 patients with the virus being treated in Irish hospitals.

Of these, 22 were in intensive care units - a decrease of two on the previous day's figure.