Government parties plan by-election voting pact as poll shows Sinn Féin ahead

Sinn Féin candidate Lynn Boylan canvassing in Dublin 12 this evening. The date for the upcoming Dublin Bay South by-election was announced today as July 8. Picture: Leah Farrell/ RollingNews.ie

There is alarm in Fine Gael over the fate of the Dublin Bay South by-election as Sinn Féin confirmed its status as the largest party in the State. A second national opinion poll in three days has Sinn Féin ahead of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Sources in Fine Gael have said they will seek to form a voting pact with their Government colleagues in a bid to prevent Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan from taking the seat. 

The latest Ipsos/MRBI poll for The Irish Times reveals that Sinn Féin is now the most popular party in the country on 31%, rising three points from 28% since the last poll conducted in February.

The poll shows that Fianna Fáil’s support has jumped six points from 14% to 20%, while support for Fine Gael has slipped back three points from 30% to 27%.

Support for the Green Party remains static at 6% while Labour remains stuck on 3%, unchanged from the last poll.

Big losers

The big losers are ‘Independents and others’ who have slipped from 19% to 13%.

A separate category of non-aligned Independents has also slipped back from 13% in February to 8% now.

Satisfaction with the Government’s performance has also spiked by 10 points to 53%, a clear sign of the rollout winning public approval.

On Covid 19, 70% of those polled said they felt the Government was doing a good job in terms of combatting the pandemic, compared to 45% in February, a result also clearly linked to the perceived success of the vaccine rollout.

The Social Democrats and Solidarity People Before Profit are both on just 2% while Aontú is on 1%.

In terms of support for the party leaders, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has seen his own personal satisfaction rating jump from 42% to 49% while Tánaiste Leo Varadkar’s personal rating is up four points from 52% to 56%.

Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald has seen her personal satisfaction rating fall from 45% to 42% while satisfaction with Green Party leader Eamon Ryan has fallen by nine points from 35% to 26%.

Polling day

The Government formally fired the starting gun on the Dublin Bay South by-election, confirming that Thursday, July 8, will be polling day.

In the Dáil, deputy Government whip and Fine Gael Kerry TD Brendan Griffin formally moved the writ, or legal order, to set the date.

It is planned that polling stations will remain open later until 10.30pm to facilitate a Covid-compliant election.

So far, there are 12 confirmed candidates contesting to fill the seat vacated by former housing minister Eoghan Murphy, a Fine Gael TD. They are: Ivana Bacik (Labour); Justin Barrett (National Party); Lynn Boylan (Sinn Féin); Claire Byrne (Green); Deirdre Conroy (Fianna Fáil); Peter Dooley (Independent); Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats); Mannix Flynn (Independent); James Geoghegan (Fine Gael); Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua); Brigid Purcell (PBP/Solidarity), and Mairead Tobin (Aontú).