Unemployment could top 390,000 post-pandemic - highest rate since 1986

The Social Justice Ireland Unemployment Motor expects an unemployment rate of 16.1%, which is higher than the last recession.

Unemployment in Ireland could top 390,000, the highest jobless rate since 1986, according to a new study.

The Social Justice Ireland Unemployment Monitor expects an unemployment rate of 16.1%, which is higher than the last recession.

More than 1.2 million people had their employment impacted by Covid-19 and of these almost a quarter of a million, more than 20%, do not expect to return to their previous job.

Of those people not expecting a return to their previous job, almost 112,000 are between the ages of 15-34.

"We are facing a major explosion in youth unemployment - which was already underway before the pandemic," says Colette Bennet, economic and social analyst with Social Justice Ireland.

"Older workers, those aged 60-64, have also been disproportionately affected, with more than one in five of the 72,322 workers affected not expecting to return to their job.” 

According to the Employment Monitor, the sectors with the highest proportion of workers not expecting a return to their jobs were:

• information and communication (31.5%);
• administration and support service activities (17.7%); 
• and professional, scientific and technical activities (17%).

Dublin is set to have an unemployment rate of 21%, an increase of almost 350% on its pre-pandemic unemployment rate.

According to the study, all other regions across the country is likely to double their rate.

The border counties are forecast to have the lowest unemployment rate but interestingly suffer from the highest poverty rate.

“While many employers are experiencing staff shortages, there will be a very large group wanting to work who will need upskilling and retraining to fill the vacant positions.” according to Dr. Seán Healy, CEO of Social Justice Ireland.

“It is essential that policy initiatives are taken immediately to address this situation.”

Social Justice Ireland is calling for an extensive - as yet uncosted - package of investment in training, housing, schools, broadband and other supports - particularly in rural areas - along with tax reform to assist the lower paid and those in vulnerable jobs.