Glynn: 'More reasons than ever to hope' during the pandemic

Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn said a fourth wave of Covid-19 was not inevitable if caution remains high. Picture: Colin Keegan/ Collins Dublin

The deputy chief medical officer has said there are "more reasons than ever to hope" than at any time during the pandemic, and that a fourth wave was not predictable.

Dr Ronan Glynn told the Oireachtas Health Committee that the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) was not predicting a fourth wave of Covid-19, but said one could happen if restrictions are eased too quickly.

Dr Glynn said the number of patients in ICUs across Ireland was at its lowest level since New Year's Day, and that he was hopeful because of that figure, declining case numbers, and fewer people in hospitals across the country with the illness.

Value of the vaccine programme

He said the value of the vaccine programme was being seen across health workers, who had made up as much as 10% of cases and now make up just 2%. He added that there had been no new outbreaks in nursing homes this week, the first

“We have more reasons to be hopeful than at any time to date during the pandemic. Last week, Ireland reached the milestone of 1m vaccines administered,” he added.

Dr Glynn said the risk of a further wave of infection could be mitigated by continued public buy-in to hand hygiene, distancing and restrictions. Picture: Denis Minihane.

“As of last Saturday, 19.3% of Ireland’s adult population have had at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine and 8.1% of adults, including those most vulnerable in our population, are fully protected."

Dr Glynn said reports that Nphet was arguing for six more weeks of lockdown were "misinterpreted", based on a line from his opening statement.

"I hope my opening statement is first and foremost a hopeful message as opposed to one that is causing worry about a fourth wave. 

We are not predicting a fourth wave, we are simply saying it remains a possibility whilst also acknowledging that the vast majority of indicators appear to be going in the right direction."

He said while there "there remains a considerable risk that Ireland will experience a further wave of infection if public health measures are eased too quickly", it could be mitigated by continued public buy-in to hand hygiene, distancing and restrictions.

"Modelling has shown that a further wave of infection can be substantially mitigated if levels of social contact across the population remain largely unchanged over the next six weeks. 

For the coming weeks, the priority must be maintaining control over the disease until vaccination can offer a widespread population level of protection."

Dr Glynn said he was optimistic that most people are adhering to the rules because the number of close contacts per case has not risen in recent weeks. This, he said, was "phenomenal".

Optimistic

"I am sure no one believes it but I remain, and have always remained, optimistic about the public's willingness to buy into measures, despite the fatigue. 

"The fact we have not seen an increase in close contacts, per case, since the middle of February is phenomenal. 

It shows that despite well-publicised incidences in which a small number of people have not complied, the vast majority of people are continuing to try to do the right thing. 

"It makes me hopeful, more than anything else."

Dr Glynn added there have been 46 cases of the South African variant of the disease found in Ireland, with mutations and variants also being found in the B117 variant, which is dominant in Ireland.