'We are sailing very close to the wind here', warns Nolan

Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of the Nphet epidemiological modelling group, at a Covid -19 update press conference at the Department of Health this evening. Picture: Picture Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

Health officials have sounded a "note of caution" about the prevalence of Covid-19 in the community, warning that the country remains in a "precarious" state despite a gradual decline in case numbers.

While many of the virus indicators are trending in the right direction, increased mobility and the planned return to school for many students next week is causing concern among health officials.

Some 592 new cases of Covid-19 were announced last night, in addition to a further 10 deaths. There were 359 Covid-19 patients in hospital, including 87 in ICU.

Speaking at a health briefing last night, Philip Nolan, the chairman of the Nphet epidemiological modelling group, said hospital numbers have declined from over 2,000, but still remain higher than at any stage of the second wave of the virus. The R number is stable at 0.6-1, he said.

Mobility data also shows that traffic levels are around 60% of a normal workday, which is in sharp contrast to last April, when they were at just 25%. There is a risk this could lead to increased infections, he said, though he noted that the number of close contacts for confirmed cases remains low. 

“We are sailing very close to the wind here … a gust of wind in the wrong direction, and we are in big trouble", said Prof Nolan.

"It is essential over the next few weeks that we stay home, continue to limit our contacts, and suppress transmission."

Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, called on parents to continue working from home when children return to school.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn and Professor Martin Cormican, clinical lead for antimicrobial resistance and infection control, HSE. Picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

“I would appeal to parents — please do not take that as a signal to go back to work," he said. 

"Please stay at home, work from home if at all possible. We have to protect the gains we have made.” 

He said he is aware of the burden these restrictions place on workplaces.

But, he warned: “If there are employers telling employees to come into work when they don’t need to, they are putting the progress we made at risk.” 

The vaccines are having a “phenomenal effect”, Dr Glynn said.

He said: “We are looking at two to three months where we have got to stick with this … barring unforeseen events, there is a reasonable expectation we will have a good summer.” 

In the short-term, there will be a vaccine bonus for the elderly and vulnerable who have lived restricted lives, Prof Nolan said.

This view was supported by Professor Karina Butler, chair of the National Immunisation Advisory Committee.

She said vaccinated older people could visit with young children two weeks after their second dose — but she stressed that visiting and hugging are not the same.

“The question everyone is asking is: 'When can grandparents get the hug from their grandchildren?',” said Prof Butler.

Once the grandparents are protected, and when the rates in the community are down to that residual risk in the community and in the child; it’s brought very low to negligible, then that’s the time when they can get together."

Thursday marks one year since medics reported Ireland's first death related to Covid-19.

More than 4,500 people in Ireland have since lost their lives to the disease.