Covid cases need to fall below 200 per day before country can reopen, says Nphet
A quiet Henry St in Dublinâs city centre: Senior ministers are understood to be worried about "unreal expectations" building around the prospect of a speedy relaxation of restrictions. Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins
Positive Covid-19 cases will have to fall to between zero and 200 per day to allow the country to reopen safely, the Governmentâs senior medical advisors have said.
In the clearest indication to date as to what is required to reopen the country, it is also understood that the reproduction rate of the virus will need to fall to 0.5 given the virulence of the new strains of Covid-19.
Senior ministers are understood to be worried about "unreal expectations" building around the prospect of a speedy relaxation of restrictions.
Last night, it was confirmed that a further 47 people have died from illness associated with Covid-19, and there were another 631 confirmed cases, up almost 300 on the previous day.
The understands that, in oral briefings to Taoiseach MicheĂĄl Martin and other senior Government figures, Dr Philip Nolan, chair of Nphet's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, suggested that cases need to fall sharply before it would be safe to broadly reopen society.
It has been made clear, too, that the level of restrictions will only be reconsidered when people over 70, those at very high risk, and frontline workers are vaccinated, with sources suggesting it will be at least âmid-Mayâ before that happens.
On April 5, it is likely there will be some relaxation of the 5km travel limit and it is also expected that a reopening of construction will be allowed.
However, there is unlikely to be any further concessions, despite a palpable desire from many sectors for some relaxation of restrictions.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly told his parliamentary meeting last night that the country needs to remain "cautious" to ensure it avoids a fourth wave.
Mr Donnelly and Mr Martin fended off persistent criticism and âfrustrationâ from their party colleagues over the pace of the vaccine rollout.Â
âWe have and we will seek every avenue to get more vaccines," said the Taoiseach. "If there is EMA approval for other vaccines from outside the EU, we will use themâ
Data issued by the Department of Health last night showed that 613,650 Covid-19 vaccines had been delivered to Ireland to date and, as of March 7, over 525,000 doses had been administered to residents and staff at long-term care facilities, frontline health workers, and people aged over 70.
Currently, 95% of available vaccines are being administered within seven days of arriving in the country.
Despite these trends, former minister Dara Calleary cast doubt over the forecasted numbers due to arrive in the coming months.
âHow can we trust AstraZeneca in the next quarter when they let us down so much, so far," he asked the Fianna FĂĄl parliamentary party meeting.
The meeting also heard some support for the potential development of a vaccine passport, while the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting was told the pace of vaccine delivery has been "very frustrating".
TĂĄnaiste Leo Varadkar also told that meeting that the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine, expected to be approved by the European Medicines Agency today, is unlikely to arrive in Ireland until next month.
Meanwhile, the Governmentâs vaccine taskforce said it has been alerted to various offers around the procurement of vaccines outside of the advance purchase agreements, from non-government suppliers.
âThese mainly relate to AstraZeneca, and the company has confirmed it is focused on global commitments to governments and international health organisations," said the government. "It has advised the Department of Health that there is currently no private sector supply, sale, or distribution of its vaccine. It has cautioned that if someone offers private vaccines, they are likely to be counterfeit.âÂ
