Ireland set to exceed pre-pandemic emissions as economy picks up

The International Energy Agency revealed that global energy-related CO2 emissions were 2% higher in December 2020 than in the same month a year earlier, driven by economic recovery and a lack of clean energy policies.

Ireland is likely to exceed pre-pandemic carbon emissions once the economy picks up, a leading energy expert has warned.

The prediction comes as it emerged emissions globally are already rebounding back after the biggest drop in decades.

Dr Piyush Verma, senior energy policy analyst for the International Energy Research Centre (IERC) at Cork's Tyndall National Institute, said the first two years after emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic would set the stage for the next 30 when it comes to Ireland's role in the climate crisis.

He was speaking as the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that global energy-related CO2 emissions were 2% higher in December 2020 than in the same month a year earlier, driven by economic recovery and a lack of clean energy policies.

The agency's data showed that the Covid-19 pandemic "triggered the largest annual drop in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions since the Second World War", falling to their lowest in April, but that they were 60m tonnes higher in December 2020 than the corresponding month in 2019, before the pandemic took its grip globally.

Dr Verma said: "Thanks to the vaccine, there is hope that soon we will come out of this most restrictive lockdown of our generation. 

We will shortly see a significant increase in our economic activity. But, there is a greater likelihood that once the economy fully reopens, our emission level will go beyond pre-Covid emissions level.

Decarbonisation of heating and transport simply has to be prioritised, he said.

"Ireland has demonstrated its leadership in integrating renewables into electricity supply system and we need to speed up building on this success. Retrofitting homes, heat pump implementation, and electric vehicle targets outlined under the Climate Action Plan will be the most important targets to track over the coming years. 

"It is critical to highlight that the investment in these will be investment in environmental, social and economic infrastructures of Ireland. 

The post-pandemic energy demand and emissions, especially in the first two years, will set the trajectory for our 2030 and 2050 ambitions.

"Getting the economy roaring back need not come at the cost of the environment, Dr Verma said.

"This pandemic has triggered the most serious economic crisis of the century, and of course, there has to be a greater focus on creating jobs, reviving industries and businesses, and boosting the economy. 

"But it should be not at the cost of our environment, health and general wellbeing. Trade-off has to be made between short-term and long-term gains. Resources are scarce and immediate benefits are tempting, but we can’t fall victim to it. This is the tough moment for leadership, which has to see the historic opportunity of this crisis to develop a more resilient and sustainable society."