Premature easing of Covid-19 restrictions 'will lead to increase in severe cases and mortality'

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has called for 'strong and decisive public health interventions' to control the transmission of Covid-19. Picture: Ben Birchall/PA Wire

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has said that the epidemiological situation in Europe is still of “serious concern" and that easing lockdown measures prematurely "will lead to a rapid increase" in Covid-19 cases and deaths. 

In a Covid-19 risk assessment, it said that the majority of EU countries are still experiencing high or increasing notification rates in older age groups and/or high death rates, despite a decline in the overall incidence of the virus.

The decline is “most probably” due to the impact of “tightened non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)”, such as travel restrictions.

The ECDC has called for “strong and decisive public health interventions” to control the transmission of the virus.

It said that since January 21, “EU/EEA countries have observed a substantial increase in the number and proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant, first reported in the United Kingdom.

Ireland reports B.1.1.7 to be the dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain and, based on growth trajectories observed, several other countries are expecting a similar situation in the coming weeks. 

The ECDC has said that the risk associated with further spread of different Covid-19 variants in the EU/EEA “is currently assessed as high to very high for the overall population and very high for vulnerable individuals”.

It added that “unless NPIs continue, or are strengthened in terms of compliance during the coming months, a significant increase in Covid-19-related cases and deaths in the EU/EEA should be anticipated.

“Although vaccination will mitigate the effect of replacement with more transmissible variants, and seasonality could potentially reduce transmission during the summer months, easing measures prematurely will lead to a rapid increase in incidence rates, detection of severe cases and mortality.” 

The ECDC said that “optimising the implementation of NPIs” is essential and it has recommended that "non-essential travel should be avoided as part of general physical distancing measures in the community”.

Pandemic Fatigue

The ECDC has also warned of the need to properly address pandemic fatigue.

“As suggested by recent anti-lockdown protests and civil disturbances in some European cities, pandemic fatigue could adversely affect the continued acceptance of and compliance with NPIs by the population,” said the ECDC.

It said the issue needed to be dealt with as a “matter of urgency” if further waves of infection “are to be avoided and population compliance is to be maintained”.

The ECDC said: “Public expectations about the likelihood of easing restrictions need to be carefully managed. To facilitate this, authorities should make systematic efforts to ensure that they have a good understanding of community perceptions of the pandemic, the NPIs in place and Covid-19 vaccine acceptance through ongoing behavioural research.”