Health expert warns Covid cases may rise as testing of asymptomatic close contacts resumes

File picture: Denis Minihane.

A leading member of Nphet has warned that Covid-19 cases may rise in the coming week, but people should not be disheartened by it.

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said that any increase will likely be due to resumption of testing of asymptomatic close contacts.

Last night, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan confirmed that Ireland has “experienced over 1,000 deaths and more than 100,000 cases in January 2021. We have reported more cases in one month than we experienced throughout 2020. 
 

“This shows just how quickly this disease can spread and how much it can impact public health.” 

A further 79 deaths and 1,414 confirmed cases of Covid-19 were confirmed on Saturday.

In a series of posts on social media, Prof Nolan said that Ireland has made “extraordinary progress” in the fight against Covid-19 this month.

However, he warned that “we still have weeks to go to suppress the virus and get the level of infection and case numbers as low as possible”.

Highlighted the encouraging work done to date, Prof Nolan said: “We’ve driven the 5-day average case count down from a peak of over 6800 cases per day in early January, to 1278 cases per day now. Great, but still too high, the same as the October peak, but we can get it right down if we maintain our efforts.

Test positivity is below 10%. Now that testing of asymptomatic close contacts has resumed, we may see an increase in case numbers in the coming week. Don’t be disheartened or distracted by this, if we keep doing what we have been doing they’ll start to fall again. 4/10 pic.twitter.com/Eedeww1haV

— Professor Philip Nolan (@PhilipNolan_MU) January 31, 2021

 

“The 14-day cumulative incidence is down from 1530 per 100000 to 537 per 100000, again great progress, but the peak in October was 300 per 100,000, we entered December at 80 per 100000, and were as low as 3 per 100000 in July. A way to go yet.

“Test positivity is below 10%. Now that testing of asymptomatic close contacts has resumed, we may see an increase in case numbers in the coming week. Don’t be disheartened or distracted by this, if we keep doing what we have been doing they’ll start to fall again.”



Addressing hospitals, Prof Nolan said: “The number in hospital has fallen significantly, the number in ICU has plateaued; importantly the number of new admissions per day is down. Each number is an individual story of suffering and trauma; each admission you prevent is worth the sacrifices you’ve made.” 

Prof Nolan did warn that the incidence in those aged 65 and older, “and especially those aged 85 and older, is worryingly high”.

However, he said it is now decreasing.

He added: “The latest modelling data shows that, on our current trajectory, we could get to 200-400 cases per day by the end of February; let’s make it a shared objective to get there, and then take cautious strategic steps forward.

“The summary: depending on the measure you take, incidence now is one-third to one-fifth of what it was at the turn of the year, but remains at least an order of magnitude higher than we need it to be; if we maintain our efforts we’ll get there.” 

Prof Nolan’s comments come as the Taoiseach stated that it is unlikely there will be any significant easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions on March 5.

Micheál Martin has said he "does not see a major reopening of the economy" on March 5 and that the Government would take a "conservative and cautious" approach to when personal freedoms will be restored.

Speaking on RTÉ radio, Mr Martin said he and his government are working on the basis of a “prolonged suppression of the virus”.