Highly infectious UK variant of Covid-19 needs 'more robust response'

A more robust response to the rapidly spreading UK variant of Covid-19 is needed, according to an expert from the University of Limerick. Pictured are gardaí on checkpoint duty on the N25 at Midleton, Co Cork, making sure drivers are in compliance with the current Covid-19 restrictions. Picture: Dan Linehan

The possibility the UK variant of Covid-19 could lead to a “bounce” in infections in the coming weeks has heightened the need for a more robust response and greater compliance with public health restrictions.

That is according to Professor Cathal Walsh from the Health Research Institute at the University of Limerick, who said we may have to work harder to contain the more infectious UK variant.

A recent research paper by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), he said, highlighted the additional risks posed by "variant substitution", which could see the UK B117 variant becoming dominant in the US by March.

The more contagious UK variant required “an even more rigorous” containment strategy that should be implemented sooner rather than later, the CDC paper states.

While the B117 variant may already be dominant in Ireland, given it was detected in more than 50% of all new cases in recent weeks, we may not have seen its full effect yet, Prof Walsh said.

Despite optimistic signs that Covid-19 infection rates are falling in Ireland, the statistics and modelling expert said the next two to three weeks would be critical.

“Even though we’ve seen a decrease recently, there is a concern about a possible increase in the coming weeks simply because of this variant substitution and the increase in transmissibility,” he said.

So even if we maintain the same controls that we have in place, there is a concern that we may see an increase in the number of cases. That underscores the need to maintain restrictions to the fullest extent possible in the coming weeks."

Prof Walsh is one of several experts feeding into the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group that advises the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet). He said we may not have done enough yet to control the current surge.

“The real concern is that we could see a bounce in transmission in this wave and before we get down to low enough levels of disease,” he said, adding that GP Covid referrals had not slowed enough.

To contain the more infectious variant, he said, we may need to get the reproductive (R) number down to 0.7 or 0.6, where previously getting below 1.0 was sufficient.

Maximum compliance with public health restrictions, adequate ventilation in shared spaces, and as many people working from home as possible may be required, Prof Walsh said.

 “If you think back to the restrictions we had when we got the R number down to less than 0.7, that’s how strict we need to be to get the new variant down to below 1.”