Covid-19: 'Explosion' in cases will see hospitals 'get into difficulty, Leo Varadkar says

The Tánaiste said despite the worrying rise in the numbers, it is not inevitable the hospital system will be overwhelmed. File Picture: Julien Behal

The country is seeing an “explosion” in Covid-19 cases and hospitals will “get into difficulty” if numbers continue to rise, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

Mr Varadkar said it is the “firm intention” to re-open the country’s schools on January 11 even though Dr Colm Henry of the HSE said the virus is “out of control” in the community.

He said there are 400 beds now out of commission due to infection control measures and a lack of staff because of ill health related to the virus.

Speaking on RTÉ radio, Mr Varadkar said all the main indicators are showing dramatic increases which he said is concerning.

“We can see hospitalisations increasing at a rapid rate. Numbers in ICU are also increasing. In the labs yesterday we had over 4,000 positives, 5,000 the day before. This is a positivity rate of around 20%. 

Compare that to just 10 days ago, when there were about 1,000 positives being recorded every day and about a 5% positivity ratio, Mr Varadkar said. 

What we're seeing is an explosion of cases beyond any of our modelling, or any of our projections from only a few weeks ago.

The Tánaiste said despite the worrying rise in the numbers, it is not inevitable the hospital system will be overwhelmed.

“The virus can be slowed it can be stopped. It can be contained again. But the response needs to be similar to what we had last spring, and that means flattening the curve, that means staying at home. 

It means freeing up hospital capacity for Covid patients. It means slowing down the virus, and also means accelerating the vaccination programme, if at all possible. Our hospitals are now facing the prospect of being overwhelmed, based on these numbers that we're seeing,” Mr Varadkar said.

Schools reopening

On schools, he said it's the firm intention of the government to open schools and preschools on January 11 as planned. 

“We certainly don't have any advice from the public health experts that we should close schools,” he said.

Dr Henry said there are “tough decisions” to be made on whether schools open and while he said he sees them opening but things are changing so quickly.

On compliance, Mr Varadkar said the vast majority of people are complying with the rules and regulations and have been there for nearly a year. 

“But of course there are issues we can see the issues with the Shebeens. We hear stories all the time of people who aren't isolating when they're waiting on a test or waiting on test results,” he said.

Dr Henry said if we have anything other than full compliance to Covid-19 restrictions then the hospital system will not be able to cope.

Possible reduction on 5km travel limit

Earlier, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan suggested that the current 5km limit on exercise could be reduced to 2km if current restrictions do not lead to a sufficient drop in coronavirus cases.

Eamon Ryan said we will have to "wait and see" if the current level 5 measures work in slowing the spread of the virus.

The restrictions are currently in place until January 31.

However, the HSE's chief clinical officer is warning there could be up to 3,000 Covid-19 hospital admissions by the end of the month if the current growth rate continues.

Minister Ryan said the recent figures show a "sobering rise" in the transmission of the virus amid record numbers this week.

Eamon Ryan said we will have to "wait and see" if the current level five measures work in slowing the spread of the virus File Picture: Julien Behal Photography/PA Wire

Speaking to Sean Defoe on Newstalk, Mr Ryan said he expects the figures in the coming week to continue to be very high due to a backlog in the system.

He added that "a really strong effort in the next week from everyone can stop hospitals becoming overrun".

On the next moves which can be taken if the current restrictions do not lead to a sufficient decrease in cases by the end of January, Mr Ryan said there is "always" more which can be done and "it is in our hands" based on "the level of contacts we have".

"Whether that's, for example, reducing the travel restrictions from 5km down to 2km which we did last March and April and a range of different measures that you could look at then," he said.

That's for a week or two's time if we find that the numbers aren't starting to flatten off and then decrease.

He said that looking at traffic volumes and hearing from friends anecdotally around the country, Irish people are "very aware of the risk that's at stake" and he believes that the population collectively can be good this week in "hunkering down" and adhering to guidelines