'Stay at home, stop socialising', says CMO as third wave of Covid-19 takes toll on Ireland

Professor Philip Nolan, said: “We are clearly now in a third wave, we have gone to a five-day moving average of 616 cases per day."

Ireland is now in the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic and it is vital that everyone stays at home and avoids socialising, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned.

Concern has risen in recent days about the rapid rise of cases in Ireland, with a further 727 confirmed today, and the crucial 14-day rate of infection reaching 122 — up from 80.4 per 100,000 of population.

The Department of Health confirmed no new deaths but said 241 Covid-19 patients are in hospitals — 29 in intensive care units.

Chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan, said: “We are clearly now in a third wave, we have gone to a five-day moving average of 616 cases per day.

"The 14-day rate is rising more rapidly, more rapidly than at any point since March.” Data shows increases across the country — cases in Dublin have more than doubled in one week.

This now means the situation in Dublin is as bad as it was at the peak of the October surge.

He also noted a “very significant” increase in other counties.

The positivity rate from tests has risen to 5.9 from just over five.

He predicted as many as 1,800 daily cases in early January but said this is not inevitable.

Dr Nolan warned too of a worrying increase in cases among the over-65s and over-85s, and said an update on the nursing home situation will be available on Wednesday.

Data on the R-number will also be released then, but he predicts it could be as high as 1.6 which is higher than in August when there was widespread intercounty travel.

It was 1.4 in August but most people socialised outdoors rather than in the higher-risk indoor areas.

Director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, Dr Cillian De Gascun, said a new variant of Covid-19 found in the UK has not yet been seen in the Irish sequencing.

“We can’t preclude the possibility,” he said, adding that as British scientists now know it has been circulating there since late September it is reasonable to assume it is in Ireland.

Dr De Gascun said they will focus their sequencing more on cases with suspected links to Britain now that this variant is known.

“Even if the variant isn’t here, we have our own problems, but if we can learn more about it, it will inform preventative measures in the future,” he said.

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said: “There is a very rapid change, our message is for members of the public at this stage is that it is really important people stay at home, stop socialising, this is not a time for going to restaurants and pubs.” 

And he particularly advised younger people who might have been socialising this week so re-think any plans to meet with older family members over Christmas including Christmas Day.

Dr Holohan said: “It isn’t a time for travelling around the county, it isn’t a time for socialising.” 

Meanwhile, chief executive of the Health Protection Regulatory Authority Dr Lorraine Nolan said based on laboratory studies of the PfizerBioNTech vaccine, it is not harmful for pregnant women in general.

She said in Ireland women should discuss their particular situation with their GP or obstetrician.

Certain conditions such as gestational diabetes may be an added risk-factor she said, and this should be discussed.