Taoiseach: Prevailing mood points toward no-deal Brexit

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that while there is still time to find a deal before Sunday, it was not looking good at this point.

The "prevailing mood" across Europe is that no deal on a future trading relationship with the UK will be reached by Sunday.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin, in Brussels for a European Council meeting, said that while there is still time to find a deal before Sunday, it was not looking good at this point.

He said the widespread feeling was that a deal would not be reached as both sides remain apart on the issues of a "fair playing field" after December 31 — a mechanism to resolve disputes and the issue of fisheries.

"People recognise the enormous challenges that remain now in terms of pulling off a deal," said Mr Martin.

"Suffice to say that people feel and believe across the member states that this is going to be a very challenging task."

Mr Martin said that while the Government is hopeful that a deal will be done, it is planning on the basis that the talks will not reach a satisfactory conclusion on Sunday.

“We will get regular updates in terms of developments and we’ll take it from there," he said.

“But it is very serious from the Government’s point of view. We’re preparing now [for no deal].

“The Minister for Agriculture, for example, is preparing in terms of the impact on the agrifood industry and on fisheries.”

Mr Martin's gloomy assessment is echoed around Government, with a number of sources saying that people within departments are braced for bad news by the end of the weekend.

However, they all hold out hope that "calmer heads prevail" as the UK looks set to, at a minimum, take negotiations on its future relationship to the final hours.

"We're very much as you were until Sunday," said a source.

"But hopefully by Sunday evening, there is some pathway to moving forward, one way or the other."

Sources point out that Ireland's Budget 2021 has been drawn up for a no-deal scenario, with one source saying that while the Government had "hoped it wouldn't happen, it looks like good planning now".

Tanaiste @LeoVaradkar says he believes a Brexit deal is still possible and could still be reached at the last minute @rtenews pic.twitter.com/3SzI0a9YoC

— Aisling Kenny (@KennyAKE) December 11, 2020

Foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney, however, was more hopeful in his assessment this evening. 

Speaking as he met his German counterpart Heiko Maas, Mr Coveney said that a deal could be done, and called on both sides to "try and dial down the language in terms of the division and differences of views, and focus on the detail".

He said that he did not believe, however, that a no-deal scenario now would strengthen the EU's hand in later negotiations.

"Anybody who thinks no deal now is in the EU’s strategic interests because in six or 12 months' time, when we start talking to the UK about putting in place a new agreement, that somehow the EU’s hand will be strengthened, I don’t think that shows an understanding of a British mindset.

"I think the United Kingdom will try and make whatever the outcome is in the next few days and weeks work, whether it’s a deal or no deal, and so all of the focus now should be on getting a deal done that both sides can live with and work with."

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the negotiating teams’ positions remain apart on “fundamental issues”.

The two leaders have agreed to make a decision on the future of the negotiations by the end of the weekend.