Holohan said move to level 5 or face 2,500 Covid cases daily

As Level 5 restrictions are set to come into effect from midnight tonight, members of the public are pictured at the Aviva Stadium Community Testing Centre today, where the Defence Forces are supporting the HSE by running a Covid testing centre. Photograph: Sasko Lazarov/RollingNews.ie

Ahead of Level 5 lockdown restrictions being put in place, the country’s most senior doctor told the Government that Ireland could be facing up to 2,500 cases of Covid-19 daily by the end of this month.

In a letter to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly from last Thursday, October 15, outlining health chiefs’ recommendation to go to the highest lockdown levels, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said implementing Level 5 restrictions was necessary to ease the burden on the health system, as it heads into winter.

Cases were multiplying even faster than had been predicted by modelling as of October 10, the letter said.

Data up to October 10 had predicted cases between 1,000 and 2,500 by the end of October if current trends were to continue, Mr Holohan said.

“Current levels of transmission are already challenging our testing and public health capacity. The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) noted that ongoing consideration is being given to how public health resources can be best prioritised to ensure that those most vulnerable to the disease are protected.

Data from recent days shows that the number of cases and the number of hospitalisations are increasing faster than the exponential growth predicted

“It also noted the very real risk that hospitals, in particular, will have difficulties in meeting demand in the coming days and weeks, with occupancy rates now back at pre-Covid levels and inevitable consequent impacts on the provision of scheduled non-Covid care,” he wrote.

Mr Holohan said the growth rate of the epidemic has accelerated and that data shows it was rapidly outpacing figures from predictive modelling.

“The growth rate of the epidemic has accelerated and data from recent days shows that the number of cases and the number of hospitalisations are increasing faster than the exponential growth predicted via modelling, indicating a rapidly deteriorating disease trajectory nationally and potentially compromising our ability to protect these core priorities.

Chief medical officer, Dr Tony Holohan, said implementing Level 5 restrictions were necessary to ease the burden on the health system, as it heads into winter. File picture: 

“Nphet is particularly concerned that the burden of this latest wave of infection will fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable in our society. In that regard, it noted the rise in the number of outbreaks in nursing homes and amongst the Irish Traveller community, and also the scale of these new outbreaks. It also noted the rise in the number of outbreaks in hospitals.” The 5km travel limit, which has been the source of much annoyance, even from people who say they support draconian restrictions, was absolutely necessary, Mr Holohan said.

“Given the current profile and trajectory of the disease and modelling projections, the level of demand pressures across the health system, the overriding priorities of protecting the most vulnerable and continuing health and education services, Nphet believes that the risk is too great to wait to take further action.

“As part of its discussions, Nphet considered whether Level 4 measures would be sufficient to achieve the necessary levels of suppression. However, given the absolute imperative to protect the priorities as set out above and to do so rapidly, it was felt that a recommendation to implement Level 5 measures was warranted.

“In particular the potential impact of the stay-at-home measure of curtailing non-essential travel to within 5km of home, if appropriately adhered to, was emphasised.”