Irish scientists develop test that predicts which Covid-19 patients develop severe infection

The blood test works by measuring the levels of two molecules that send messages to the body's immune system and control inflammation. File photo.

Irish scientists have developed a score that can accurately predict which patients will develop a severe form of Covid-19.

Researchers at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences developed the measurement - called the Dublin-Boston score - that is designed to enable clinicians to make more informed decisions when treating patients with Covid-19.

The test will help to identify patients who may benefit from therapies, such as steroids, and admission to intensive care units.

The Dublin-Boston score can accurately predict how severe the infection will be on day seven after measuring the patient's blood for the first four days.

“The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to all hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” said RCSI Professor of Medicine Gerry McElvaney, the study’s senior author and a consultant in Beaumont Hospital.

“More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate or de-escalate care, a key component of the efficient allocation of resources during the current pandemic.

"The score may also have a role in evaluating whether new therapies designed to decrease inflammation in Covid-19 actually provide benefit.” 

The blood test works by measuring the levels of two molecules that send messages to the body's immune system and control inflammation.

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One of these molecules is pro-inflammatory and a different one is anti-inflammatory. The levels of both are altered in severe Covid-19 patients.

Based on the changes in the ratio of these two molecules over time, the researchers developed a point system where each 1-point increase was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome.

The Dublin-Boston score was developed by researchers from RCSI, Harvard University, Beaumont Hospital in Dublin and the Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.

The study was published in The Lancet's translational research journal EBioMedicine.