Q&A: Calculated grades and what's next for Leaving Cert students

Lessons have been learnt from the experience in the UK and the use of historical school data  has been removed from the calculated grades process.

What’s the latest with the Leaving Cert?

Essentially, a school’s track record in the Leaving Cert exams will not be a factor in a student’s results. The use of historical school data, also referred to as ‘school profiling’ or ‘a postcode lottery’, was the most contentious element of the calculated grades process. In the UK, a heavy reliance on this sort of data saw a disproportionate number of A-Level students in poorer schools have their grades lowered by the standardisation process. At the same time, students in private schools were more likely to see their grades rise.

Lessons have been learnt from the experience in the UK and, following Government approval, this element has been removed from the process.

Why do grades have to be standardised, can’t we rely on schools’ estimates alone?

The Department of Education says that standardisation is necessary, although it may prove to be “unpopular” with students. The data received by the Calculated Grades Executive Office shows different schools took different approaches to estimating marks and rank orders. Teachers and schools were never involved in the estimation of marks before 2020 and, the department says that man, understandably, estimated “over-optimistically”. Others underestimated. More information on this will be published next week. The Department of Education maintains that the standardisation process is needed to ensure all students have been treated equally.

Will this affect many grades decided by schools?

Approximately 63,000 school-estimated grades have been brought down by one grade during standardisation, while a further 16,000 have been increased. The vast majority of the 410,000 grades remain “unchanged” following the process, although data processing is not yet complete. 0.1% of school-estimated grades have been brought down by two grades or more, with the Calculated Grades Executive Office looking at each of these grades to make sure they are statistically sound.

The Department of Education says its statistical model is a blind model that does not take into account characteristics like gender or disadvantage

Will gender and socio-economic background will be a factor in results?

The Department of Education says its statistical model is a blind model that does not take into account characteristics such as gender and disadvantage. However, it is checking outcomes against these groups to ensure there are no anomalies.

It is also confident that students in disadvantaged areas will not be negatively affected by the process, and that “exceptional” students have had their results preserved and reflected fairly following the process.

Will college points go up or down due to all of this?

It is too early to say for sure. Leaving Cert results are expected to be stronger this year than in previous years. According to the department, schools’ estimates saw the number of top grades in many subjects almost double, and even triple in some cases. Uncontrolled jumps would mean CAO points would rise very significantly so standardisation may have prevented this.

Approximately 1,250 additional college places are to be created, supplemented with 1,415 additional places in areas such as engineering, ICT, science, and professional construction.

What’s next?

Students will receive their results on Monday, September 7, via the student portal. Schools are asked to support students via phone if they can, and a helpline will be operated by the National Parents Council Post Primary on 1800 265 165. First-round CAO offers will be issued on September 11. Appeals will open on September 14. At that time, students will receive their school’s estimated marks and ranking, as well as the calculated grades from the Calculated Grades Executive Office.