Constituency Profile: High-profile TDs will be difficult to shift in Cork South Central

For candidates outside the established parties, Cork South-Central might be too tough an ask.

In fact, even for some of those in the established parties, it represents a huge challenge too.

There are few constituencies that have such a high-profile selection of candidates.

As well as the Tánaiste and the leader of the opposition, this geographically small constituency counts a popular TD who out polled his own party leader in 2016, the leader of the Seanad, and one of Sinn Féin’s brightest rising stars among its ranks.

Five into four doesn’t go.

There are clear trends here over the years. Fianna Fáil is, and always has been, strong.

Between them, Michael McGrath and Micheál Martin took 41.6% of first-preference votes in 2016, both passing the quota on the first count.

A repeat of this is not out of the question, though the pressure is on the latter now.

While he has done well as party leader in the elections in 2014, 2016, and 2019, with Fianna Fáil recovering locally and nationally, there is a sense of now or never for Mr Martin’s chances of becoming taoiseach.

Another potential leader will also be keen to build on his 2016 result.

Fine Gael was disappointed in 2016. While Simon Coveney won a seat, Jerry Buttimer missed out.

The party will be keen to repair this damage.

The most likely fly in the ointment for Fine Gael’s plans to take two seats is Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire of Sinn Féin.

He caught some off-guard in 2016. Then a first-term county councillor, he secured a seat when few people outside the party had given him a fighting chance.

In the four years since, he has become a prominent member of his party, serving as a spokesman for justice and, later, education and he will not give up his seat without a fight.

But if Sinn Féin’s polling slips, there could be space here for a second Fine Gael candidate — a return to the Dáil for Mr Buttimer, perhaps? Or maybe the Green Party.

In 2016, Lorna Bogue, then an unknown, picked up 3.7% of the vote in the general election and the party polled very well in last May’s local elections on the southside of Cork city.

Her stock is rising and she could be poised to cause an upset.

The 2016 election saw Labour wiped out city-wide. Ciarán Lynch lost his seatin South Central and has stepped back from politics since.

In the last few years, Peter Horgan has been the most visible Labour activist in the area, though he is focusing his efforts on securing a nomination for the Seanad, and the party is running newcomer Ciara Kennedy, who ran in last year’s local elections.

Ms Kennedy got 3.54% of first preferences and was eliminated early on in that race.

She may build on her early work here but it is hard to see Labour edging its way back into contention, at least yet.

There have been outsiders that have caused a stir in this constituency in the past, but they don’t make it over the line.

In 2016, this was Independent candidate Mick Finn. He stayed in the hunt until the 10th count when he was finally eliminated.

Mick Finn

Since then, he has topped the poll in the local elections and served a year as lord mayor of Cork, raising his profile in the process.

However, Mr Finn has confirmed that he has no plans to run this time, and says it is “nigh impossible to break into the established political party order in Cork South-Central”.

The statistics back up his point.

No Independent has ever won a seat in Cork South-Central, though Kathy Sinnott missed out by just six votes in 2002.

But the constituency has long been dominated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

When it was a five-seater, they often picked up four seats between them.

Often, it is a scrap for the extra seat.

It was Sinn Féin’s in 2016 and, in the past, the Green Party, Labour, and the Progressive Democrats have secured seats but, as Mr Finn said, it is hard to see the established order splintering much further than it already has.

Two each for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is not out of the question, nor is a direct repeat of the 2016 result.