Expert predicts election meltdown for PDs

The Progressive Democrats will plummet to just two Dáil seats - their lowest ever tally, an election expert predicted today.

Sean Donnelly, who has compiled statistics on four previous general elections and runs the www.electionsireland.org site, also forecast that Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens will not have the numbers for an overall majority.

After close study of opinion polls and 41 constituencies the pundit also predicted that Fianna Fáil will lose nine seats while Sinn Féin and the Greens will each gain new TDs.

"Mary Harney will be returned for the PDs with either Michael McDowell or Liz O'Donnell," said Mr Donnelly.

The prediction means that outgoing TDs of the junior Government partner - Noel Grealish, Mae Sexton, Fiona O'Malley, Tim O'Malley and Tom Parlon will all be rejected by voters.

The pundit's state of the parties for the 30th Dáil is: Fianna Fail: 70(-9); Fine Gael: 44 (+12); Labour: 24(+3); Greens: 9 (+3); Sinn Féin: 8 (+3); PDs 2 (-6); Socialist Party: 2 (+1) and Independents: 9 (-5).

"With a resurgent Fine Gael and with the Greens and Sinn Féin pushing for votes, I just can't see where the PDs will get their seats except for Harney and either McDowell or O'Donnell," said Donnelly.

"However, nothing is certain until people make their tick in the ballot box on Thursday. With such a tight contest, a lot of last-minute decisions will be made, I think."

The PDs won an incredible 14 seats in their first general election in 1987 but this fluctuated to 6 in 1989, ten in 1992, four in 1997 and eight in 2002.

According to Mr Donnelly's forecasts, the possible coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens will have 77 seats between them, six short of a Dáil majority of 83.

Reacting to the forecast, PD leader Mr McDowell said “The pundits always get it wrong when it comes to the PDs. And they’re getting it wrong this time as well.”

Fine Gael also questioned the validity of the prediction.

“We wish to point out that Mr Sean Donnelly is a pollster in the employ of Fianna Fáil,” said a spokesman. “This renders his opinions partisan.”

Experts predicted two seats in 2002 but the party doubled its TDs from four to eight, he explained.

Mr McDowell said that today’s opinion polls showing a drop in support for Fine Gael and Labour augured well for the PDs.

“People are beginning to see the flaws in the alternative coalition, whether it’s the bogus contract for the people or the dangers of a lurch to the left.

“We’re confident that by polling day, people will be voting in large numbers for the PDs so that the achievements of the last two administrations will not be thrown away.”