FG tops Roscommon poll

It's all to play for in the Roscommon/South Leitrim Constituency with just weeks to go before a General Election.

A Roscommon Herald/Red C opinion poll, published this week, sees Fine Gael taking 41% of the first preference vote with Fianna Fail at 37%.

This poll is predicting that sitting Roscommon TDs Denis Naughten, Fine Gael and Michael Finneran, Fianna Fáil will retain their seats with that all-important third seat going to Fianna Fáil's Deputy John Ellis who just pips newcomer, Senator Frank Feighan (FG) at the post on the sixth count.

The clear winner from the poll is Deputy Denis Naughten on 27%, with enough votes to make the quota and be elected on the first count.

With Naughten hotly tipped as ministerial material and even as a future leader of Fine Gael, the poll could be reflecting the mood in the county that Roscommon needs representation at Cabinet level and Deputy Naughten could be best hope of this.

For first time General Election hopeful Senator Frank Feighan, who is coming in with 14% of the first preference vote, the party machine will need to swing in behind him and manage the transfer pattern between himself and Deputy Denis Naughten if he is to take that third seat.

A crucial issue for Feighan, based as he is in the north of the county, is the Leitrim factor.

Will the Leitrim votes stay in Leitrim or will they cross the Shannon?

With feelings running high in Leitrim over the division of the county and the fear that the county could be without a TD following election 2007, the views is that electorate will row in behind their two candidates, Fianna Fáil's Deputy John Ellis, who takes 18% of the first preference vote in this poll, and Sinn Fein's Martin Kenny who comes in at 9%.

For Deputy Ellis votes gathered in the Roscommon end of the constituency will prove crucial. His Leitrim vote alone will not swing it for him.

While he may have delivered for Leitrim, the question is where in Roscommon will these votes come from?

The poll is predicting that Deputy Michael Finneran (FF) with 19%of the first preference vote will take the second seat in the new constituency.

The dark horse of this General Election race is Independent candidate John Kelly. Coming in at 9% with 42 first preference votes, he will be relatively happy with this performance.

Kelly, a man with no party machine behind him, raced home in the local elections in the Ballaghaderreen area surprising the pundits by topping the poll.

While he has a lot of ground to make up, his supporters firmly believe that he will be in with a fighting chance for the third seat. There are some predictions that he will sweep the West Roscommon

vote in places like Ballaghaderreen and in Castlerea, being a native of Ballintubber.

As a Community Welfare Officer Kelly is quite well known and since his entry into politics has been making a name for himself. There are some soundings that he is set to be endorsed by the Roscommon Hospital Action Committee, who to date have not fielded a candidate.

With many believing that there is still a real threat to the future of Roscommon County Hospital, a threat that will only come into play after the election, HAC backing for Kelly could be crucial.

Sinn Féin's Martin Kenny has also come in with 9% of the first preference vote. Well known in the Leitrim end of the constituency, he would have huge ground to make up.

A veteran of several election campaigns at local, national and European level Labour's Hughie Baxter is taking just 3% of the first preference votes and Green Party candidate Garreth McDaid 1%.