Prodi's successor could be named next week

Europe’s leaders will meet in Brussels for dinner next week on the way back from the NATO summit in Istanbul – but only if there is a consensus by then on who should be the next president of the European Commission.

Tuesday night has been pencilled-in for a mini-summit to name a successor to Romano Prodi, whose five-term at the top of the Commission ends in October.

An Irish spokesman emphasised this afternoon that there would be no meeting at all if the current informal list of candidates for the job had not been whittled down in advance to a figure acceptable to all member states.

Last week’s EU summit which agreed on a constitution failed to resolve a blistering row over the best man – or woman – for the job.

French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder wanted the Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt to take over at the Commission.

But Tony Blair led opposition from Italy, Poland, Greece and Portugal among others. In return President Chirac said no British candidate would be acceptable because of the country’s lack of commitment to key EU ideals including the single currency.

That put paid to Chris Patten, who, although never an official British government choice, had been quietly backed by the government – and more publicly championed by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi – after being put forward by centre-right Euro-MPs.

Now Chris Patten has withdrawn his name, and – after much cajoling and persuasion that his chances were hopeless – has Guy Verhofstadt.

That leaves a clutch of worthy options, none of whom so far have excited sufficient EU leaders to rally to their cause.

They include the centre-right Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, the French foreign minister Michel Barnier, the Irish president of the European Parliament Pat Cox and Portuguese EU Commissioner Antonio Vitorino.

Lurking in the background is former Belgian Prime Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene, who was vetoed for the same job in 1994 by the then British Prime Minister John Major.

Today the name of Irish political and business heavyweight Peter Sutherland was doing the rounds.

Mr Sutherland’s CV is impeccable: current Chairman of BP and Chairman of Goldman Sachs, founding Director-General of the World Trade Organisation, former Chairman of Allied Irish Banks, former EU Commissioner for competition policy and social policy, and former Attorney General of Ireland.

He is also on the political centre-right, satisfying Euro-MPs who say the Commission president should reflect the majority leaning in the new European Parliament.

Whether Mr Sutherland can command popular support among the 25 EU leaders remains to be seen, and today Mr Ahern was too pre-occupied in Tokyo with the EU-Japan summit to take soundings.

Mr Ahern himself is still being talked of as an ideal choice. Certainly the job was his for the taking a week ago when no obvious consensus name was emerging.

But those close to the Taoiseach say he has no interest in moving to Brussels for five years to run the Commission.

The final decision only requires a qualified majority vote of the EU leaders. But anything less than a convincing consensus would leave Mr Prodi’s replacement looking politically weak before he has even taken over.