Poll boost for Fianna Fail

The first opinion poll of the general election campaign tonight provided a big boost for Bertie Ahern and his Fianna Fail party.

The survey, carried out for the Irish Times newspaper by the Market Research Bureau of Ireland, indicated that Mr Ahern and his party could be in line for an overall majority in the Dail for the first time since the 1980s.

The poll of 1,000 people at 100 locations on Monday - before the emergence of two major controversies, surrounding a new magazine’s strenuously- denied allegations about the financial affairs of deputy premier Mary Harney, and Sports Minister Dr Jim McDaid’s description of suicide victims as ‘‘selfish bastards’’.

Because of new methodology, using a simulated ballot paper for the first time by the MRBI, the poll cannot be accurately compared with the last similar set of figures from the organisation in February.

But, after the exclusion of a Don’t Know factor, the returns showed Fianna Fail securing the support of 45% of those questioned, up almost 6% on its 1997 general election backing, Fine Gael on 23%, down 5%, Labour on 12%, down 1% and Ms Harney’s Progressive Democrats, partners in the outgoing government with Fianna Fail, on 2%.

The survey indicated 6% support for Sinn Fein - contesting an Irish election for the first time since the signing of the Good Friday agreement on Northern Ireland - the Greens at 3% and others at 9%.

On the personal popularity front, Mr Ahern secured a 69% rating, an increase of 2% since February, Fine Gael’s Michael Noonan with 30%, up 1%, Labour’s Ruairi Quinn, 40%, up 1%, Ms Harney 52%, down 4%, the Green’s Trevor Sargent, 35%, down 1%, and Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein 48%, unchanged.

Analysts said the figures could indicate a majority for Fianna Fail, but also stressed that everything would depend on the transfer of votes under the terms of the proportional representation system of polling.