Doubt surrounds abortion vote

The Government is under intense new pressure over plans for a referendum on abortion law tonight following an opinion poll’s indication that their proposal for reform could be lost in a nationwide vote.

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and his cabinet are due to select a date for the plebiscite pledged when they took office five years ago early next week.

But the Market Research Bureau of Ireland signal that the Government’s bid to clarify the present abortion legislation has only marginal, and potentially falling support among the electorate, could force a re-think.

The terms of the proposed plebiscite would aim to resolve doubts over the current written constitutional ban on abortion, generated by a Supreme Court decision a decade ago and a subsequent nationwide vote that failed to clear up the confusion.

The new Government-framed proposals would permit abortion in cases where the life of the mother was at risk, but remove the threat of suicide as the grounds for a termination.

The latest poll - reported in today’s Irish Times - showed a far from decisive stance on the issue on the part of the electorate, with 39%of those questioned in favour of the government plan, but 34% against.

A further 21% said they had no opinion and 6% said they would not vote.

The concept of a poll was backed by 61% of those quizzed in the survey.

Opposition parties have already lined up against the terms of the plebiscite, considering them to be unfair to women, andthere is thought to be pressure for the vote to be called off from elements within the Progressive Democrats party, who share office with Fianna Fail.

The figures showed that 50% of Progressive Democrat supporters were against the referendum and just 25% in favour.

Today a spokesman for the party, headed by Tanaiste Mary Harney, said they would be carefully assessing the survey figures.

Ms Harney has said a vote should not go on without broad public approval for the proposed changes, but legislation for a plebiscite has already been put in place.

Tonight Fine Gael and Labour both called onMr Ahern to scrap the referendum plan.

Fine Gael health spokesman Gay Mitchell said the Government should deal with the issue by way of legislation rather than a nationwide vote.

Labour frontbencher Liz McManus said there was now no basis for putting the matter to the people.

Political observers in Dublin believe the Government would be reluctant to go ahead with a referendum that might be lost just two months ahead of a general election, expected to be called for May.

There is also concern that a referendum could re-open long-standing bitter divisions between Ireland’s pro-life lobby and those in favour of a free choice over the issue.