Transport and agriculture sector emissions to increase

Greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture and transport sectors are expected to increase as economic growth improves, according to the latest estimates from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Projections from the EPA show it is unlikely Ireland will meet targets for lower emissions by 2020. Despite a target of a 20% reduction by 2020, emissions are still only between 4%-6% lower than levels in 2005.

EPA director general Laura Burke said the latest projections were a disappointing indicator the current policies in place to reduce emissions were failing to meet EU obligations in an improving economy.

“What we haven’t been able to do is couple emissions from the economy,” Ms Burke said, noting emissions had reduced during the recession.

“For example, transport emissions, energy emissions, all of those emissions reduced during the recession but as soon as the economy has taken off, we’re seeing significant increases in emissions again.

“We are an island nation, vulnerable to climate change. We’ve a great deal to gain by becoming a leader in moving to a low-carbon economy. We need to look at what we need to do to achieve that,” Ms Burke said.

Agriculture and transport are estimated to account for 74% of emissions by 2020 from Ireland’s non-Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

According to projections, agricultural emissions are expected to have increased by up to 5% between 2015 and 2020.

Transport emissions are expected to rise by 2020, with a 10%-12% increase on 2015 levels.

Ireland is also expected to meet 2020 targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy, further adding to the challenge facing the State, the EPA said.

But missing the target for a reduction in greenhouse gases is a “national embarrassment”, according to Green Party leader Eamon Ryan. “We are one of only two countries in the EU that will miss our 2020 target.

“The Government has seen emissions reduction as a cost rather than an economic opportunity for Ireland. Transitioning to a Green economy is an economic opportunity we are missing out on. Instead, the gulf between Government’s empty rhetoric and the actual situation will cost us dearly in our quality of life,” he said.

“The worrying thing is that the National Mitigation Plan, out for public consultation at the moment, is just more business as usual. We are on a continuous upward trajectory on emissions when we need to be going in the opposite direction.”

Minister for Climate Action, Denis Naughten, said the revised projections paint a stark picture of the challenge facing Ireland.

“Though not unexpected, given the welcome return to economic growth in Ireland it, nevertheless, serves to further reinforce the difficult decisions ahead of us as we try to further reduce our emissions out to 2030.

“The options presented in the draft National Mitigation Plan will be complex and often expensive to implement,” he added.