Figures indicate Fine Gael may need Fianna Fail to form coalition
The first detailed test of the public’s views since the give-away Budget 2016 announcements earlier this month shows that while Fine Gael has gained 2% since the plans were revealed and now stands at 30%, Labour has failed to gain a post-budget bounce, falling 3% to 7%.
Fianna Fáil has gained 2% to 20%, Sinn Féin is static on 16% and Independents/others — compromising of Independents on 22%, Renua on 2%, the Greens on 2%, the Anti-Austerity Alliance/ People before Profit on 1% and others on 1% — falling 1% to 27%. Independent analysts suggest the Red C poll figures, if broken down by seats, mean Fine Gael is on course to win 63, Labour two, Fianna Fáil 33, Sinn Féin 22 and Independents/others 38.
And with such a result leaving the current coalition in need of significant backing from a large swathe of Independent TDs or smaller parties with diverse views like Renua and the Greens to form a stable government, the prospect is increasing of the coalition needing the backing of Fianna Fáil.
In recent weeks Fine Gael and Labour leaders, Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton, among other high-ranking officials have stressed the need for a sustained recovery, with Mr Kenny telling his party’s recent presidential dinner it must “sustain the recovery” instead of handing it over to rival parties. “I, for one, don’t want to see Ireland’s hard-won progress put at risk by those who wrecked our economy several times in the past, or by those whose policies would surely wreck it in the future. Fine Gael has a plan to keep the recovery going. It’s a plan based on enterprise, not speculation,” he said at the time.
Labour has also been in favour of continuing the coalition, with the recent vote pact agreement with Fine Gael — which, unlike the Mullingar agreement before the 2007 general election is not a policy pact — underlining its intent to return to power with its governing partner after the upcoming election.
However, with the latest opinion poll showing Labour has failed to obtain the expected post-budget bounce making the prospect of the coalition returning in its current form less likely, the potential need for Fianna Fáil’s assistance is becoming an increasing prospect.
While Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has repeatedly ruled out suggestions his party will enter government with Fine Gael, Labour or Sinn Féin, party TDs have suggested supporting the current coalition on key issues from the opposition benches should the election make this necessary.
This would allow the Government to continue in power without the need for a series of complicated deals.
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