New Zealand weather forecaster predicts weather for 2015

No sign of small talk here as Daniel Hession talks all things weather with well known New Zealand forecaster, Ken Ring.   

In 2014, Clonaslee in Co Laois got 95mm of rain on August 1, its wettest day on record since 1985.

Although most may recall 2014 as a dry year, Mullingar had its wettest year since 2002, while Mace Head in Co Galway got only 88% of its long-term average rainfall.

As for annual rainfall averages, they conceal February figures nearly double or triple their normal level, and over 15 consecutive dry days during September which brought drought conditions to parts of the south, southwest and west.

These records from Met Éireann weather stations provide proof, if needed, of the hazards of predicting Ireland’s weather more than a week ahead.

Nevertheless, New Zealand weather forecaster Ken Ring not only predicts the weather for the year ahead, but also forecasts that 2015 will be drier than 2016 and 2017.

I asked Ken about the forecasts in his 496-page 2015 Ireland weather almanac (available through his www.predictweather.co.nz website).

What can we expect weather wise early in the New Year?

With some surprisingly mild intervals, this winter may be a season remembered for being overall drier than average, cloudier, and with daytime temperatures that stay close to average but below the average for many early mornings.

The first 20 days of January trends towards frosts rather than snowfalls.

The last 10 days of January sees most precipitation for the month, with some regions’ temperatures unusually mild.

For many, the brunt of wintry weather stretches only from early December to January 20. February is mostly mild, especially for the south, and the last 10 days may be remembered for strong winds.

The fourth week in February and the first week in March bring heavy rain, and with the two highest tides of the year, possible flooding, especially for Munster.

Should farmers be prepared for a cold Spring in 2015?

Some snow returns in March for the midlands and the north of the country, but sub-zero temperatures for most of Ireland may end after the third week in March.

However, in parts of the north, wintry temperatures continue off and on into April.

Mostly, spring will be mild and cloudy, with average rainfall.

Despite lingering cold early in March, and brief wintry showers in the first week, overall for some it may be one of the warmest springs on record, with maxima for the country up a degree, and minima up around half a degree, compared to average.

Closer to average seasonal temperatures can be expected in the north, and a rather warmer than average season elsewhere.

What’s in store for summer 2015?

Summer will be sunnier than the average, with warmer maxima and average minima, and average rainfall overall for the country.

There will be a wide variance between the north and south, with the north having a drier and warmer summer than the south, and with most counties enjoying a sunnier summer than average. Summer rainfall will be above the norm in Leinster and Munster provinces.

Will Autumn 2015 be as mild and dry as we experienced this year?

Autumn will be sunnier and warmer, with average rainfall overall. August sees some shower activity on most days.

When is the warmest/sunniest spell likely to occur during summer?

The second and last weeks of April are mostly dry, some of the longer dry spells might be most of the first half of June, and the third week in July.

Specific dry dates for each county are listed in the Ireland Weather Almanac for 2015.

The sunniest part of the country will be the northern fringes of Ulster and the least sunshine will be recorded in the southeast of Leinster.

August may be a notably warm month for all.

Overall, what is 2015’s weather going to be like?

This year should be drier than 2016 and 2017.

The most precipitation for the whole country may be May, followed by August, with April likely to be the driest.

The largest amount of rain in one region or month may be in November in southern counties, and the smallest amount in the eastern counties during April.

Because of the cyclical nature of weather patterns, 2015 may be compared to trends in the late 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s.

Any particular wet or cold period at any stage?

The wettest periods may be around the third week and the end of June, the first and fourth weeks in July, and the first and third weeks in August, mostly over the southern half of the country, whilst northern parts remain much drier.