Anti-EU sentiment may be levelling, but not in Britain

Exit polls from the Netherlands suggest anti-EU sentiment might be levelling off as decidedly pro-EU parties came out on top, but the message from Britain appears to be very different with Ukip clear winners.

As electioneering winds down in the EU, the question now is who will lead the European Commission, and whether the European Parliament election results will play any role.

Herman van Rompuy, who represents the member states, has been working to isolate the issue, stating it is clear the council proposes the candidate and the parliament elects the person.

While the leaders will meet over dinner in Brussels on Tuesday, EU sources insist they will not discuss names but identify the main priority guidelines for the coming years which would guide the Commission.

They are likely to wait until after July 1 when the lead social candidate for the Commission job, Martin Schultz, steps down as parliament president, and already Britain’s David Cameron has been forthright in his objections to the European People’s Party candidate, Jean Claude Juncker.

One name surfacing again is IMF president Christine Lagarde who is said to be favoured by German chancellor Angela Merkel. A former French finance minister and a member of the centre right EPP, socialist French president Francois Hollande would have to be persuaded to nominate her. Normally the selection is made by consensus but requires just a simple majority as Ms Merkel noted recently.

However it will require an absolute majority of MEPs, which could be gained by giving some of the other posts to a socialist. Presidents of the council and eurogroup and the foreign minister jobs all need to be filled.

The Netherlands’ 23 seats will be shared among 10 parties according to exit polls, with two relatively minor parties in the national party sharing an estimated 30% of the vote between them to take four seats each.

One, Democrats 66, had Sophie in’t Veld as their lead candidate — a well-known MEP who has been at the forefront of several campaigns including data privacy and internet freedom in the European Parliament over the past five years.

The two government coalition parties, liberal VVD and the labour party lost votes but are forecast to retain their four seats. There are two interesting new parties expected to take a seat each, the Party for Animals that fights for animal rights and the 50PLUS party representing pensioners.

Geert Wilders, the vociferously anti-Islam, EU and immigrant leader of PVV that is the third biggest party in the national parliament, is expected to lose one of its four seats with its vote share down from 17% to 12%. But the poll comes with a warning — it was wrong last year on local elections. Turnout at 37% was slightly up on 2009.

In Britain former trader and outgoing MEP, Nigel Farage, is expected to take about 27% of votes and increase seats from 9 to 22 with his policy to take Britain out of the EU. His Europe of Freedom and Democracy group in the Parliament is expected to gather some new right-wing eurosceptic members.

The Tories are expected to go from 16 to 10 seats and will need to attract new MEPs to maintain their ECR group in the Parliament, formed when party leader David Cameron pulled them out of the European People’s Party.

This is likely to leave the British Labour party MEPs as the only group with clout with around 22 MEPs in the socialist group. Some are predicting the socialists will form a grand alliance with the European People’s Party as the only way to guarantee a Parliament majority.

The Czechs are also leaving their eurosceptic past behind as the two coalition partners in government are expected to take 12 of the 21 seats between them.

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