With no majority expected, EU set for grand alliance

Centre-right conservative parties are expected to remain the biggest political group in the European Parliament, with Ireland among the eight countries where they will be returned.

However, they are forecast to be one of the biggest losers of vote share, shedding one-fifth of their seats to retain 217. The Socialists will be returned by six countries, seeing a slight increase in their vote and taking 201 seats.

But neither party will have the majority of 376 MEPs necessary and none of the smaller groups will have enough seats to hold the balance.

This will leave the two biggest parties with no option but to form a grand alliance, sharing all the important posts and coming to an agreement on who gets the top prize of president of the commission.

This “battle for Brussels” being fought out between the five lead candidates of the main political parties is as a result likely to be decided by the prime ministers, rather than the voters for the Parliament.

It also means any hope that Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin had of being part of groups that could be kingmakers will be dashed. And if there are no Labour candidates returned, Ireland’s access to power will be through Fine Gael and the EPP.

The latest collection of national polls suggests that eurosceptics may not take as many seats as thought up to now although, at an expected 177, they will hold 25% of the seats.

Eurosceptics will form the biggest single group in both Britain with Ukip and France with the National Front just shading it over their centre right opponents, the Tories and Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP.

Their ability to influence, however, will depend on them organising themselves into a larger group for which they need a minimum of 25 MEPs from seven countries.

But the voting record of the eurosceptic and far right groups in the last parliament shows they cancel out one another’s vote as often as they agree on issues.

An analysis by Prof Simon Hix and his team at VoteWatch showed that the French Front National and the Dutch Partij Voor de Vrijheid voted the same way in less than half the votes tracked.

They are expected to form a new far-right group in the parliament, European Alliance for Freedom, with five other sceptic national groups.

The majority are not affiliated to any of the traditional groups in the parliament and VoteWatch believes that at least 25 of their MEPs from seven counties will form a group.

Ukip, expected to take 30% of the British seats, is likely to remain in its European Freedom and Democracy group but in most policies has little in common with the other eurosceptic groups. Italy’s 5-star movement is expected to join it.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to rule supreme and despite being in a grand coalition with the Socialists, her party is expected to take more than a third of the seats.

However, the left parties in total will take more seats.

The Netherlands and Britain vote today, Ireland tomorrow, and the Czech Republic tomorrow and Saturday with Latvia, Malta and Slovenia and Italy votes Saturday and with the remaining 20 countries on Sunday.

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