Under pressure: The Dáil members in trouble
* Jerry Buttimer, Fine Gael: Part of his electoral stronghold in Cork South Central will be transferred to Cork North Central, costing him about 1,400 votes (judging on last year’s election). Buttimer is likely to remain in Cork South Central, but will have a huge task on his hands clinging onto his seat in those circumstances. An added complication is that Cork South Central is losing a seat, going from a five-seater to a four-seater.
* Michael McGrath, Fianna Fáil: The reduction of Cork South Central to a four-seater could also affect McGrath. At the moment, Fianna Fáil holds two of the five seats in the constituency in the shape of McGrath and party leader Micheál Martin. If only four seats are up for grabs next time out, it would be asking a lot of Fianna Fáil to hold on to two of them — and you’d have to fancy Martin’s chances above those of McGrath.
* Alex White, Labour: His constituency of Dublin South is being chopped from a five to a three-seater, with some of its terrain moved into other constituencies. White’s stronghold of Rathfarnham is due to go into Dublin South-West. That could leave him facing a real struggle to hold his seat. He could opt to move constituencies, but in Dublin South-West, there are already two sitting Labour TDs, Eamon Moloney and Communications Minister Pat Rabbitte. Unless the latter decides to step down at the next election, there would hardly be room for White.
* Peter Mathews/Alan Shatter, both Fine Gael: In all, Fine Gael holds three of the five seats in Dublin South, the other TD being Olivia Mitchell. Mitchell may not run at the next election, but with Dublin South being reduced to a three-seater, that would still leave Fine Gael with a tall order to get its other two TDs across the line. It may seem surprising to suggest that Shatter, as a minister, would miss out, but he lost on one occasion before. If Fine Gael doesn’t transfer one of the TDs to another constituency, Dublin South will be a great example of the old political truism that your biggest rival is your running mate.
* Paschal Donohoe, Fine Gael: Dublin Central is being reduced from a four-seater to a three-seater, with some of its terrain shifted to Dublin North-West. That will mean Donohoe losing a chunk of his vote. But given that he is seen as one of the party’s rising stars, he may feel he can get enough publicity to hang on, and that instead it will be Labour’s Joe Costello or Independent Maureen O’Sullivan who is truly at risk here.
* John O’Mahony/Michelle Mulherin, both Fine Gael: Enda Kenny led Fine Gael to an astonishing four seats in the five-seat constituency of Mayo in last year’s election. But Mayo will lose a seat next time out, meaning Fine Gael will almost certainly lose one too. On the presumption that Kenny, as Taoiseach, will lead his party into that election and that popular junior minister Michael Ring is as safe as houses, despite his protestations, it is either O’Mahony or Mulherin who would lose out. And if the tide was out for Fine Gael in the election, both could be casualties.
* Tom Fleming, Independent: The two three-seat Kerry constituencies will be merged into a single five-seater, meaning somebody has to lose out. Fine Gael will be fighting to retain its two seats. There will be at least one seat for each of Labour, Sinn Féin, and Fianna Fáil. All of which leaves two sitting Independent TDs — Michael Healy-Rae and Fleming — facing an uphill battle. Fleming looks the most vulnerable at this point.
* Thomas Pringle, Independent: The two three-seat Donegal constituencies will be merged into a single five-seater. Sinn Féin has a TD in each of the two constituencies at the moment and there is a belief within Leinster House that it is one of the Sinn Féin TDs who will miss out next time round. But given Sinn Féin’s strength in Donegal and the party’s growing support nationally, retaining the two seats cannot be ruled out. In such circumstances, Pringle, a former Sinn Féin councillor who will be fishing for votes from the same republican pool, might be most vulnerable.
See Constituency Commission Boundaries map here
