Kenny talks a brave game but ministers are fearful

The Government has “no fear” of holding a referendum on the fiscal compact if one is required, says Enda Kenny.

Well, the Taoiseach doesn’t seem to have spoken to some of his own ministers, who very much do fear holding such a referendum.

Last week in Davos, Mr Kenny spoke candidly about the causes — as he saw them — of Ireland’s economic collapse and quickly came to regret it.

Yesterday in Brussels, he was firmly back in spin mode, trotting out safe answers rather than genuine ones.

Does the Government fear a referendum? You bet it does.

You have only to look to the comments from some of Mr Kenny’s ministers to see it.

At a recent press conference, Finance Minister Michael Noonan bluntly admitted he would prefer to see the fiscal compact ratified by way of a parliamentary vote rather than a referendum.

“You remember the ’80s and the ’90s — we had the cultural wars around referendums at that stage, and they don’t certainly lead to social cohesion. And I wouldn’t like another round of the Irish cultural wars, which always [break out] when there’s a referendum on European issues,” said Mr Noonan.

“So I’m firmly of the view that if we can do things by parliamentary vote, that’s the way we should proceed.”

Transport Minister Leo Varadkar voiced similar concerns over the weekend. “I would be concerned that it would turn into a referendum on extraneous issues such as septic tanks, bondholders, [the] banking crisis or decisions being made by the Government, such as cutbacks,” he said.

These comments give a more realistic view of Government thinking than the Taoiseach’s safe soundbite yesterday. If Fine Gael and Labour can avoid a referendum, they will.

Of course, that all depends on the advice the Cabinet receives from the Attorney General, Máire Whelan, who will scrutinise the compact and advise whether a referendum is required or not.

If the Attorney General decides a referendum is required, the Government will need something major in its arsenal to get it passed.

Mr Varadkar is absolutely correct — a referendum would run a real risk of turning into a protest vote, given the devastating effects of successive years of cutbacks. Agreement by the troika to reduce the cost to Ireland of the Anglo bailout would help. That way, the Government could make the case that a yes vote would result in savings of billions of euro to the State. It would sound, and feel, like a bribe, no question, but then, don’t most votes rest on who can promise most?

On the other hand, the Attorney General may, as many expect, say a referendum is not required. However, that would not necessarily be the end of the matter. Sinn Féin reiterated yesterday that it would consider a legal challenge if the Government refused to hold a referendum.

The party has previously taken on a government in court and won — in Nov 2010, the High Court ruled in Sinn Féin’s favour that the 16-month delay by the then Fianna Fáil-Green coalition in holding the Donegal South West by-election was unconstitutional.

Sinn Féin would positively relish another court clash and the opportunity to give the Fine Gael-Labour coalition a black eye.