True rate of emigration still unknown

THE true number of Irish emigrants has not yet been recorded but less than half are likely to return unless we have another Celtic Tiger, an expert has said.

As dozens of recent emigrants prepare to address a seminar on the topic today, one organiser claims previous migration patterns suggest a much lower level of return than that which followed the wave of emigration in the 1980s.

Research suggests more than 472,000 people left Ireland during that period and about half of them returned.

Piaras Mac Éinrí, a lecturer in migration studies at University College Cork’s geography department, suggested that such a rate of homecoming would be likely only if the same economic conditions apply in the next 10 to 15 years as in the wake of the recession of the 1980s.

“The slump in the 1980s was followed by a boom that created optimum conditions to come back. For so many people who worked in construction, we will never see a property boom like the one we had for those 10 years,” he said.

While preliminary results of the 2011 census will give the best indication yet of the true levels of emigration, Mr Mac Éinrí believes the situation has been underestimated.

Last July, the Economic and Social Research Institute said 70,000 people had left in the previous year and another 50,000 were expected to leave up to last April, figures higher than the most recent Central Statistics Office data from early last year.

The seminar on Irish and European migration trends at UCC will take advantage of technological advances since the last recession. More than 30 Irish emigrants will listen to speakers from Ireland, Portugal and Canada and will be able to offer their views online, giving researchers previously unavailable insights.