Analysis: Still early days but signals suggest a competent coalition

THEY promised change. They promised strong leadership. They promised to repair the country’s finances and rebuild its society. They promised to do so while “protecting the vulnerable” and ensuring “burden-sharing on an equitable basis”.

So exactly 100 days in office, how has the Government done?

In his column in this paper this week, former Labour adviser Fergus Finlay argued that the 100-day yardstick was a “silly measure in one way”. He pointed out that the Government had been elected for a five-year term and would need every bit of that to turn around a country devastated by economic ruin.

“And yet the critics and commentators are lining up to give the Government a right old savaging (on the basis of the first 100 days),” he wrote.

The only problem with that argument is that the Government itself promised to achieve a number of things within the first 100 days. So, if the Government made promises to the public, it seems only fair to ask whether those promises have been kept.

Equally, the first 100 days of any government lends some hints as to what kind of administration it might be.

Brian Cowen’s first 100 days, for example, were an unmitigated disaster — and things would never subsequently improve.

In those first 100 days, he lost the first Lisbon vote, the economy nose-dived and — as we now know to our cost — the banks continued to pull the wool over the Government’s eyes.

“Is Brian Cowen in power or merely in office?” our political correspondent, Shaun Connolly, asked at the time. “His government has all too often appeared to be buffeted by events, rather than in command of them.”

That isn’t the case with the new administration. Enda Kenny and his colleagues have made a concerted effort to project power and confidence. To a large extent, this has worked, aided and abetted by some major strokes of luck.

Kenny went to Washington for his first St Patrick’s Day trip as Taoiseach and beamed as Barack Obama announced he would visit Ireland. The Queen also came to visit, allowing Kenny play the statesman and project a feel-good factor.

Similarly, the Government has taken a range of small but welcome measures to demonstrate they are serious about making change. The Ministerial Mercs, by and large, have gone, and ministerial pay has been reduced (although not enough, some would say). There is to be a referendum on judges’ pay and Dáil sitting times will be increased.

The Jobs Initiative announced in May was a bigger step and again signalled an administration intent on showing it was proactive rather than reactive — even if the measures it contained were relatively modest and will not, by themselves, dramatically lower the 14.8% unemployment rate.

But the Government could not go much further with the Jobs Fund, given the restrictions of the EU/IMF bailout. And ultimately, of course, everything this Government does is framed against that backdrop.

The terms and conditions of that bailout dictate, to a massive extent, what the Government can and cannot do. And because of that, we have already seen a series of U-turns performed or flagged by the Government.

Having promised during the election to burn senior bondholders, for example, Fine Gael and Labour quickly found out the harsh realities of life after taking office. The ECB said no to burning senior bondholders, and the Government realised it had no other option but meekly to comply.

Finance Minister Michael Noonan indicated yesterday that he will make another attempt to get permission to burn some senior bondholders in Anglo and Nationwide, but bondholders in the surviving banks, such as AIB and Bank of Ireland, will remain untouched.

Separately, Mr Noonan recently flagged the possibility that income tax increases might have to be considered in the December budget — which would represent another u-turn.

Similarly, Education Minister Ruairi Quinn signalled that third-level tuition fees may have to return in some shape or form — which would be another u-turn.

But there seems to be public acceptance — for now, at least — that this Government inherited a mess not of its making, and so the administration will be given some time. There have been no major protests yet.

Similarly, apart from one continuing row over Enterprise Minister Richard Bruton’s proposals to reform private-sector wage-setting mechanisms, the coalition partners have looked stable and the Fine Gael and Labour backbenches have remained in line.

So the early signals would suggest a competent administration, but one which will struggle nonetheless to live with the bailout unless its cost is eased significantly.

The ongoing crisis in Greece may force the EU to reconsider the burden placed on Ireland. If not, and Ireland is left limping along, the December Budget — when some €3.6bn of savings will have to be made — may be the first true test of the Government, and give a truer reflection of its ability or otherwise.