The home straight is a downhill run to the finish line

FOUR days to go, they’ve rounded the final bend, and are in the finishing-straight with just a couple of fences to jump.

The field is well strung out, and only a (most unlikely) major blunder can prevent the favourite winning — the issues for decision now are simply the distances between the contestants at the finishing-line.

‘Fine Gael’, in it’s blue silks, has profited from a superb race-strategy devised by its trainers and stable staff, and has been kept well covered-up and totally unexposed, even when there were yawning gaps capable of exploitation. The much-trumpeted lack of confidence in the jockey’s ability to deal with the obstacles has dissipated over the course of the race — he’s handling the distance well and the ground appears to be very much to his liking. He won’t be caught now, particularly in the context of the downhill run to the finish, and the apparent inability of his main competitors to get alongside him and apply pressure.

‘Labour’, in the light red, or more likely pink, colours, have struggled somewhat since the halfway mark and are the disappointment of the race, falling well short of their pre-race promise. Second place should nonetheless be secure, if only because of the unprecedented bad run of the ageing ‘Fianna Fáil’, running a very distant third. Considering particularly their excellent preparation, ‘Labour’ will be very disappointed to finish so far behind the winner, and will bemoan their failure to apply meaningful pressure at any stage of the race.

‘Fianna Fáil’, the long-time champion in the green white and gold hoops, notwithstanding a very troubled preparation will still be devastated by their worst ever performance in this race. Despite a late change of jockey immediately before the “off”, they never managed to threaten the leader and appear to have confined their efforts to staying as close as possible to Labour while, at the same time, looking over their shoulder to ensure that they’re not overtaken by ‘Sinn Féin’.

The latter, in remarkably similar colours to ‘Fianna Fáil’ (differentiated only by a distinctive red sash), have run very steadily for a best-ever placing just outside the top three. As with ‘Fianna Fáil’, serious questions had been raised in the build-up to the race around their pre-race performance, but ‘Sinn Féin’ will be much the happier of the pair with their performance. They now appear to have a real future in this company long-term, while ‘Fianna Fáil’s career prospects must be very much in doubt, and will be the subject of extremely close scrutiny in the months ahead — significant changes in race-preparation and tactics, and also in stable personnel, are likely, indeed essential.

The collection of other runners may well have a pivotal role to play in the outcome, with strong finishes expected from such as Shane Ross, Mick Wallace, James Breen, ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Joe Behan, Clare Daly, Joe Higgins, Richard Boyd-Barrett, Maureen O’Sullivan, Finian McGrath. Michael Lowry, Michael Healy-Rae, Paul Somerville, Noel Grealish, Tom Fleming, Catherine Murphy, Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran, Michael Kilcoyne, Declan Bree, Mattie McGrath, and Seamus Healy. If even half of these make the line, and I, for one, will be very surprised if they don’t, they’ll be arguing very strongly for a share of the prize-fund, and could have a serious influence on the major players’ prospects for the future.

Those future prospects are, of course, what the entire race is about and, whatever way one looks at it, it’s difficult to see Fine Gael achieve that elusive overall majority. Even in the improbable event of reaching the magic figure of 83 seats, it’s unlikely that they would have sufficient room to manoeuvre around the pitfalls of Dáil voting for any sustainable period and a coalition, of some sort, is almost inevitable; it is to this topic that attention will now shift.

DECISIONS will be made over the next few days by that small proportion of the electorate who are as yet undecided, and their decisions will have a heavy influence on the make-up of the next government. Single-party, majority or minority, Fine Gael government? A Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin led opposition? How many Independents, and on which side of the divide, left or right? The Greens? The United Left Alliance?

These are the questions which will be answered as a result of the current ruminations of those categorised in the opinion-polls as “don’t knows”. The likelihood of Fianna Fáil persuading a significant number of them to their cause is slim however, in the extreme. Opinion-polls by their very nature are somewhat limited, notwithstanding the volumes of very useful and largely accurate information they provide. One of those limitations, in this particular election anyway, has been the ‘ABFF’ phenomenon — those who, while still technically, and in reality, “undecided” as to who they will vote FOR, have nonetheless decided definitively that they will be voting AGAINST Fianna Fáil and, as a consequence, we can expect a very significant majority of this category to go to the other parties, with Fianna Fáil, barring a highly-unlikely last-gasp flourish from Micheal Martin and his new “Ograí”, benefiting disproportionately less.

Undoubtedly, we’re on the cusp of one of the major turning points in our history. The significance of the demise of Fianna Fáil, whether final or otherwise, as a major political force on the island, cannot be under-estimated.

Is it too much to hope that, out of the ashes of all the cruelties, hardships, and inequities of the post-Tiger crash, a Phoenix of a new, stronger and better Ireland might arise?