Lynch set to lead big gains for Labour after boundaries change

LABOUR look set to be the big winner in Cork North Central with the change of boundaries in the constituency as the party increases its share of the vote from 12% in 2007 to 33% in this poll.

Kathleen Lynch is close to making quota on the first count, increasing her share of first preference by 7% since 2007.

She does eventually make quota on the 7th count when Socialist Party candidate Mick Barry is eliminated.

Also tipped to do well is party colleague John Gilroy, who looks to secure 14% first preference votes, leaving him in a nail-biting finish with Billy Kelleher (FF) that suggests either one of these candidates could win the final seat in the constituency.

Of course this is not good news for Kelleher.

Despite the party reducing their candidates to just one in the constituency, with the retirement of Noel O’Flynn, their share has fallen from 36% in 2007 to just 15% in this poll.

As a result Kelleher’s own share is down 7% from the last election. Coupled with Fianna Fáil’s difficulty in now gaining transfers, he struggles to make quota, and while it is really too close to call, he only just scrapes in ahead of Gilroy according to this poll.

This is one constituency where Fine Gael national gains do not appear to manifest themselves. The party overall gets a slightly lower share of first preference than achieved in the old constituency in 2007.

This means that the two candidates — Dara Murphy (13%) and Pat Burton (12%) — split the available vote and both have to work on transfers to get elected.

Murphy does better at attracting transfer votes and eventually makes quota when Burton is eliminated towards the end of the count process. However, should the party benefit at all in the final week from the surge seen nationally, there is still a chance for them to secure two seats.

Instead the final seat in this poll is secured by Sinn Féin candidate Jonathan O’Brien, who secures 12% first preference, up 4% since 2007. He then receives a significant transfer benefit when Socialist Party candidate Mick Barry is eliminated. When some surplus from Kathleen Lynch is added, he very nearly makes quota towards the end of the count, and is elected comfortably ahead of Kelleher.

Barry himself should also be pleased with his performance, securing 11% first preference for the Socialist Party, but it simply isn’t enough for him to get elected with relatively poor transfers after this.

Because of the strength of his vote, Independent candidates do not perform as strongly in this constituency and feature very poorly.

Finally, Green party candidate Ken Walsh does not buck the trend for his party nationally, securing just a 1% share, down 3% since 2007.