Martin still believes FF can take two seats on home turf

MICHEÁL MARTIN believes Fianna Fáil can win two seats in his own constituency despite a poll suggesting support would dwindle from 44% to 27%.

He said the split in the vote between the south of Cork city and outside it would give his running mate, Michael McGrath, every chance of overcoming the predictions.

And he claimed the level of party political support shown in the Irish Examiner/Red C poll still had Mr McGrath close enough to other candidates to see him survive on transfers.

“That poll illustrates that the two seats are on. I think there has been a bit of premature wrong reading of that particular poll,” he said.

Mr Martin was speaking in Longford where the party is also hoping to retain two seats against the odds.

But he said the national polls were proving to be more pessimistic for Fianna Fáil than the constituency ones.

And in the case of Cork South Central he said the fact that Carrigaline-based Mr McGrath, Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney and Labour’s Paula Desmond were all from the southern section gave him hope.

“There are some geographic factors with the constituency that will have a bearing on it as well, in terms of where candidates are located.

“So, for example, there is a strong number of candidates in the lower harbour area. There is a lot of people in the mix in that particular part of the constituency,” he said.

In 2007, three Fine Gael candidates and one each for Fianna Fáil, the Labour Party and the Green Party all finished within 1,000 votes of each other after the first count.

The recent poll suggests the same bunching may happen this time but unlike 2007 Mr McGrath would be mired in the peloton.

Mr Martin said Mr McGrath was a good vote-getter and denied his absence from the constituency, to lead the national campaign, had compromised its chances locally.

Mr Martin said while he was elsewhere in Ireland his running mate had a higher local profile.

“I have been out of the constituency. By virtue of being a national leader I have been in every other constituency. It is a downside in some respects, it might be an upside for Michael,” he said.

Yesterday, Mr Martin made a host of stops throughout Longford and Westmeath, where he canvassed for outgoing deputies Peter Kelly and Mary O’Rourke and newcomer Robert Troy.

He addressed supporters and councillors and said there needed to be a strong Fianna Fáil-grassroots turnout to keep its hopes alive of winning seats.

At the event, Senator Donnie Cassidy was seen to vent his anger at the lack of advance warning given on the party leader’s stops and the way his itinerary was planned. In previous elections Mr Cassidy has fought bitter battles with his constituency colleague Mrs O’Rourke.

Mr Martin said the fact that a separate national poll had his party falling to 12%, the threshold which triggered the heave within Fianna Fáil against Brian Cowen, it did not mean his colleagues were facing electoral wipe-out.

However, he conceded he would most likely be sitting in the opposition benches when the Dáil resumes next month.

“I think ultimately Fine Gael and Labour look to be a likely outcome of the election,” he said.

But he warned that in 2007 his party made its biggest gains in the final week of the campaign and it could greatly improve its lot before the country goes to the polls on Friday week.

“It is all there to play for yet. This time in the last campaign there was polling which if you moved a week beyond there was significant changes in the out-turn,” he said.