Battle likely to go down to the wire

THE intriguing battleground that is the Kerry South constituency is likely go right down to the wire but it looks as if the death knell could be about to sound for two of the country’s high-profile political dynasties.

If the findings of the Irish Examiner-Red C poll hold true, former cabinet heavyweight John O’Donoghue’s political career will be in tatters after the voters have their say, while it looking increasingly likely that Cllr Michael Healy-Rae will not be able to hold the Dáil seat vacated by his father.

In keeping with national trends, there has been a huge surge in Kerry support for Fine Gael and that is expected to see the party snap up two of the three seats on offer in Kerry South. That would represent a major reversal of fortunes for an organisation that was without a seat in the constituency for 18 barren years up to the 2007 election when Rathmore-based Tom Sheahan finally made the breakthrough.

The poll predicts that Scartaglin publican, Cllr Tom Fleming, who split from Fianna Fáil to contest the election as an Independent, will also win a seat.

The poll offers count analysis up-weighted to the valid poll in the 2007 contest, Fine Gael’s Tom Sheahan will be the top vote winner in Kerry South with a forecasted 6,337 first preference votes, based on the quota-controlled sample of 500 people.

The poll puts Deputy Sheahan’s FG running mate, Cllr Brendan Griffin, on a first count tally of 5,970, and Cllr Tom Fleming (Ind) on 5,602.

Three other candidates will also top the 5,000 mark in the first count, with a predicted tally of 5,878 for Fianna Fáil’s John O’Donoghue, 5,786 for Labour’s Cllr Marie Moloney and 5,051 for Cllr Michael Healy-Rae, the Kilgarvan-based Independent.

The only other likely contender is Cllr Michael Gleeson of the South Kerry Independent Alliance, who is given a predicted first count tally of 4,225. The poll suggests that an anticipated collapse in the Fianna Fáil vote could spell disaster for John O’Donoghue, particularly as he is deemed “transfer-unfriendly” and is unlikely to secure a sufficient number of transfers to make a difference.

Deputy O’Donoghue polled well in excess of 9,000 votes in 2007 but that will be dramatically halved on this occasion, according to the research.

Michael Healy-Rae could also figure among the also-rans and, the poll suggests, his share of the first preference will not be significant enough to keep him in the race beyond the fourth count.

The poll also forecasts disappointment for Labour, and despite Cllr Marie Moloney being described as “relatively transfer-friendly,” her vote is unlikely to be strong enough to see her swept to power in the anticipated Gilmore Gale.

The one factor that cannot be overlooked, however, is the impact of Cllr Michael Gleeson, a former Labour member, and a likely generous transfer of votes between the retired Killarney schoolteacher and Cllr Moloney could have a big impact if either of them is positioned higher that the poll analysis suggests.

The count analysis conducted as part of the poll also predicts a strong transfer of votes from Cllr Gleeson to Cllr Fleming, with the long-serving Scartaglin political representative also expected to benefit from a generous share of transfers from Cllr Healy-Rae and Cllr Moloney.

Despite the fact that he is expected to secure less first preference votes that four other candidates, Cllr Fleming looks likely to be the big success story of the election in Kerry South as he is described as being “very transfer-friendly” and is expected to be the first elected in the constituency, possibly in the fifth count.

The poll indicates that the Fine Gael duo of Tom Sheahan and Brendan Griffin will also be declared elected after the fifth count, without reaching the quota, with former Ceann Comhairle John O’Donoghue just edged out.

It is important to stress, however, that with 15% still undecided on how they will vote, it is still very much all to play for in Kerry South and, even at this advanced stage of the campaign, the only certainty is the uncertainty about who will make the impact when the ballot boxes are prised open.

“The contest is very tight between five or six candidates so this result could certainly change and there is still plenty to play for,” said a spokesman for Red C.