Destination of final seats is heavily dependent on transfers

THE geographical and past party ties of some candidates in Cork South Central could play a key role in how transfers decide the last one or two seats.

The Irish Examiner/Red C poll shows Fianna Fáil’s outgoing TD Michael McGrath losing out for the final of the five seats to Fine Gael’s Senator Jerry Buttimer by less than 350 votes and less than 900 off outgoing Fine Gael TD Deirdre Clune’s final tally.

But any minor deviations from these first preference figures on February 25, or in the transfer patterns suggested here, could see a change in how at least one of the fourth and fifth places is allocated. The poll outcome shows four candidates — Buttimer, McGrath, Clune and Sinn Féin councillor Chris O’Leary, who ran for the Greens on the northside in 2007 — being in with a clear shout for the last pair of seats.

All but one of the eight Independent candidates look likely to be eliminated no later than count five, with city councillor Michael Finn proving the exception on a strong 5% first preference. The other Independents’ poor combined total of less than 5% means their transfers may be meaningless enough when count staff get down to the business end of things at Cork City Hall on Saturday night week.

The surpluses of Fine Gael’s Coveney and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, if they play out as predicted in the poll, may be too small to make a huge difference early on. But they could prove crucial later, as the order of later elimination will likely be determined by how much and in what direction they both transfer votes.

The awarding of the last seat by voters in this poll to Mr Buttimer is based, firstly, on his strong 9% first preference showing and he will have to secure at least that level of support on the day to be celebrating at the end of play.

But he will also have to hope that Coveney is clear enough of the quota after count 1 to give him a good bounce going into the third count and beyond. Likewise for Clune, whose 8% share of first preferences (down from 10% in 2007) means she will also be depending on a strong Coveney display to help her on the transfer front to the fourth seat.

Based on the Irish Examiner/Red C poll, both Buttimer and Clune would trail McGrath on first preferences and, similarly, his fate will largely depend on what surplus his party colleague Martin would come in with. If the FF leader can manage the 18% share suggested, McGrath will be very much in the final reckoning with the few hundred transfers likely from party loyalists.

What might not be reflected in this poll sample is the strong possibility of McGrath doing more favourably from other strong candidates in his own Carrigaline and Cork harbour stronghold of the constituency.

Although just 7% of the people polled in Cork South Central told Red C that they chose a candidate based on being from the same area, almost one-in-five more were influenced by local issues on which their preference had taken a stance.

For McGrath, even a few dozen votes from Coveney’s surplus (he picks up none in this poll, despite the Fine Gael man being a Minane Bridge native) and a stronger share than the one-in-four transfers after the elimination of Labour’s Carrigaline-based Paula Desmond might bring McGrath much closer to success.

He is, after all, still almost 200 ahead of Buttimer after the eighth and second-last count in this poll. The analysis is based on applying the percentages in this poll to the same 59,068 valid votes being cast as in 2007.

McGrath may well also benefit from more transfers than suggested from Finn. As a former Fianna Fáil activist and ex-parliamentary assistant to John Dennehy, who represented South Central up to 2007, it would be surprising if some of Finn’s base doesn’t send some votes the way of the Carrigaline man. Chris O’Leary, who left the Green Party in 2008 and joined the Sinn Féin benches in City Hall last summer, will need the strong transfers from Finn to play out as predicted in the poll. This would see him stay in the hunt to the end as he is only eliminated on the basis of a 174-vote gap to Buttimer after the eighth count.

And while Deirdre Clune appears the safest for the fourth seat based on heavy transfers from Coveney and, in the home stretch from Paula Desmond, memories of her seat loss in 2002 will mean she can not be complacent.