Martin battling to save second seat on his own turf

FIANNA FÁIL leader Micheál Martin has just over two weeks to save his party’s second seat on his own turf in Cork South Central.

It’s a big ask in the five-seat constituency with Fine Gael running three candidates, Labour running two, and a host of independents thrown in for good measure.

But despite Fianna Fáil’s plummeting poll ratings, its rising young star, Carrigaline-based Michael McGrath, may have done enough on the ground over the last five years to hold his seat.

It would be an astonishing performance if he were to defy the national polls, the anti-Fianna Fáil sentiment, and fend off the challenge of Labour’s Carrigaline-based candidate, Paula Desmond.

According to the national polls, Fianna Fáil is under pressure to hold its second seat here.

Martin topped the poll in 2007 with 11,226 first preference votes — just over 19% — when the party stood at around 42% in the national polls.

Despite the party’s collapse in the polls, he will hold his seat on February 25.

McGrath took the second seat in 2007 on his first Dáil election outing, just 1,360 votes behind Martin — taking 16.7% of the first preference vote.

McGrath has built a solid reputation over the last five years, working with the Public Accounts Committee, and is widely regarded as one of the party’s best young TDs.

He was rewarded for backing Martin in the leadership heave and was appointed the party’s spokesman on financial sector reform.

While his seat is undoubtedly under pressure, he will be hoping that his own personal vote, combined with Martin’s elevated profile as party leader, may be enough to secure it. But it won’t be easy.

Ms Desmond will pose a significant challenge in his area. And Fine Gael’s three-candidate strategy will also be fascinating to watch.

Its outgoing TDs, Blackrock-based Deirdre Clune, and Carrigaline-based Simon Coveney, took the third and fifth seats respectively in 2007.

The party should retain two seats but seasoned observers predict that Clune will be under pressure, with Fine Gael Senator Jerry Buttimer running in the west of the constituency tipped to poll strongly.

At the 2007 election, Buttimer, who at that stage had been a city councillor for two years, was eliminated on the fourth count, after polling an impressive 5,180 first preference votes, a figure he is likely to exceed on February 25.

But the party would need to be at about 45% in the national polls to pick up a third seat here.

Outgoing Labour TD, Ciarán Lynch, was the only Labour candidate in the constituency in 2007, and took the fourth seat, just 273 first preference votes behind Clune.

There was little between Lynch, Coveney and Clune — with Clune at 9.72%, Lynch at 9.25%, and Coveney at 9.93% of the first preference vote.

Lynch will retain his seat but transfers, particularly from Desmond, will prove crucial in the final shake-up with McGrath, Labour, Fine Gael, and possibly Sinn Féin all involved in a dog-fight for the final seat.

Sinn Féin’s Mahon-based city councillor, Chris O’Leary, will have to build significantly on the party’s 2007 figures — 3,020 first preference votes — to be in with a shout.

Green Party chairman, Senator Dan Boyle, who surprisingly lost his Dáil seat in 2007 after polling 4,945 first preference votes, is also running this year.

He always had a strong personal vote in South Central but the backlash against the Green Party will cost him.

Independent candidates David McCarthy, son of mental health campaigner and former Dáil candidate, John McCarthy; Edward Isherwood, a father of autistic twins; and city councillor Michael Finn will pick up votes given the swing to the left.

Finn, who was the Dáil assistant to former South Central Fianna Fáil TD John Dennehy, is most likely to poll well.

Other independents, including Sean Dunphy, Gerard Linehan, Ted Neville, Diarmaid Ó Cadhla, and Finbarr O’Driscoll, will not be involved in the final shake-up.

The most likely outcome is that the status quo will be maintained, with Fianna Fáil holding its two seats, Fine Gael its two, with perhaps a change of personnel, and Labour holding its seat.

Unlike 2007, when local issues were to the fore, national issues are dominant on the doorsteps.

The main issues are the economy, job creation, emigration, taxation, reforming the political system and the health service.

Corporation tax has also been raised as an issue by people in certain parts of the constituency, which is home to several major centres of employment, including the country’s pharmaceutical hub in Ringaskiddy, which is heavily reliant on multi-national pharmachem giants, and Mahon Point, where several large American software firms are based.