FG-Labour coalition remains most likely outcome

THE pattern now seems set. Fine Gael has surged to 38% in the latest opinion poll, putting them 18 points ahead of its nearest rivals Labour.

Fine Gael will certainly lead the next government, and Enda Kenny will be taoiseach. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore’s claim on that job has all but evaporated.

That might seem a premature judgment to make with two weeks of the campaign still to run. But it would take a miracle for Labour to overcome a gap of that size in just a fortnight.