Biggest number of candidates ever in constituency

THIS time around, three Fine Gael candidates will have their names near the top of the ballot paper and not many would bet against two of them taking seats in Leinster House on March 9.

With Batt O’Keeffe retiring amid controversy over Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s reshuffle debacle that helped bring the election date forward, Fianna Fáil’s Michael Moynihan hopes he can hold onto the seat he took comfortably four years ago, in second place just behind FG’s Michael Creed, who runs again this time around.

But even as one of the constituencies with the highest FF vote last time around (53% of first preferences went to Moynihan, O’Keeffe and unsuccessful outgoing TD Donal Moynihan), it might yet be a close call for the Kiskeam man if the party’s performance in recent polls is reflected on election day.

The election stalwarts in this constituency are joined by a number of new runners in a nine-strong field, two more than four years ago and the biggest choice given to voters here in the history of the state.

The new names include two female candidates, more than any occasion since the creation of Cork North West before the 1981 general election, in which time a woman has only appeared on the ballot paper in 1992 and 2007.

Last time around, the Green Party’s Caroline Robinson polled poorly and was eliminated after the first count with less than 4%, and party colleague Mark Collins flies the party flag this time around. He boasts on his candidate web page that he came fourth in the 2005 World Speed Poker final but a 4% vote in the Macroom electoral area for the last Cork County Council election two years ago suggests he is unlikely to be dealt a winning hand on February 25.

It is the first time Áine Collins from Rathcoole near Millstreet has sought election but she is no stranger to the campaign trail.

The former Fine Gael national executive member directed Noel Buckley’s successful runs for Cork County Council in 2004 and 2009 and hopes to bring her experience as an accountant and consultant advising small and medium businesses to the 31st Dáil.

People Before Profit is running 34-year-old student Ann Foley from Newmarket, who is appealing to voters angry about the troubled economy and its effect on their lives to allow her make their voices heard amid the louder and bigger political parties.

Apart from the issues facing candidates on the doorsteps in all 43 constituencies — jobs, the economy and social welfare payments, among others — the largely rural nature of Cork North West determines other significant concerns.

The closure of the sugar beet factory in Mallow has had a significant impact on many farmers in Cork North West, where one-in-10 workers were employed in agriculture or forestry in 2006.

But that proportion is likely to be higher since the last census, given that 14% of the constituents five years ago worked in construction — higher than the national proportion of 11%.

Rising school transport costs affect families in many communities, with small rural schools being attended by most primary pupils in this constituency. Health issues are also likely to be on the agenda, with concerns in some parts about bed closures and rising charges at community hospitals.

Since 2007, around 4,350 of this constituency’s near-80,000 population has been moved into neighbouring Cork North Central, with 1,350 people from Kilcullen and Mountrivers in the former Macroom rural district and 3,000 from Dromore and Kilshannig (formerly Mallow rural district) on the move.

But with Ballincollig staying in play, after being annexed from Cork South Central four years ago, Fianna Fáil has added local cumann chairman Daithí Ó Donnabháin to the ballot after local stalwart O’Keeffe’s resignation from politics. His chances may be unrealistic but the young solicitor could prove key to deciding the final seat if he deflects some of the town’s electorate from backing long-established Fine Gael county councillor Derry Canty.

The painter-decorator could be in with a chance of one of two likely FG seats, having secured more than 4,000 first preferences to win a county council seat in the Macroom electoral area in 2009. This was more than twice his tally in 1997 when he last contested a general election, standing as an independent in Cork South Central following a snub by the Progressive Democrats whom he had represented on the council since 1991.

But although he claimed last week that another Ballincollig name might bring out otherwise non-participating FF voters and get him a few transfers, he would surely have preferred to be the only one from the satellite town on the ballot paper.

The destination of the final seat could also rest with the performance of Labour’s Martin Coughlan, a county council member since 2004 and current Mayor of Macroom. Although he only picked up a 5% share of first preferences in the last general election, he could be in the running if the ‘Gilmore Gale’ hits Cork North West and a strong FG vote earns him enough transfers from strategic voters.

However, it may not be clear until after polling day whether the appearance of two other left-wing candidates for the first time will be a help or a hindrance to Coughlan’s cause. As well as Ann Foley, Sinn Féin’s Des O’Grady (a second-level teacher in Coachford) is seeking first preferences from left-leaning voters, although he will need to do better than the 6.5% share he polled in the Macroom electoral area for the Cork County Council election two years ago.

Eileen Desmond was the last Labour TD for these parts, when the southern end of this constituency was part of the Mid Cork Dáil ceanntar in the 1970s.

Since then, the spoils have interchanged between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with one or the other holding two of the three seats in nine elections since 1981.

A safe gambler would probably put their money on two FG (Creed and either Canty or Áine Collins) seats and Michael Moynihan hanging in for the third if his party’s first preferences are above the national average again. But our single-transferable-vote system will probably ensure no clear picture emerges until at least after the first count on February 26.