Dogfight likely as veterans hang up their boots

WITH an above average marriage rate, a greater likelihood than the rest of us to own their homes outright and families less likely to have a single mother at the head, the population of Cork South West would appear to favour the traditional — and politics is no different.

For the past 30 years Fine Gael has taken two seats in the three-seat constituency in all but one of nine general elections. The exception was 2002, when Fianna Fáil’s Denis O’Donovan topped the poll, snatching the long-held seat of PJ Sheehan, a TD since 1981.

However, despite improving its first preference vote in 2007, with newcomer, Christy O’Sullivan, topping the poll, FF lost out again to Sheehan and the old order was restored. It was however something of a surprise that O’Sullivan outpolled outgoing FF TD, Denis O’Donovan, by more than 2,500 votes. The Labour Party had high hopes for its candidate, Michael McCarthy, but he failed to get elected.

This time around however, after a 30-year wait, the Labour Party is presented with its best opportunity in 10 Dáil elections of winning a seat — even if the party’s standard bearer, Senator Michael McCarthy, will have an uphill battle to shake up a constituency solidly controlled by the two main parties.

FF and FG between them regularly seized over 80% of the vote in the last seven elections while Labour managed around 9%. With the exception of 2002, three names have dominated here since 1981— ex-senior minister Joe Walsh (FF), former minister of state O’Keeffe (FG) and Sheehan (FG). All three are now retired.

With Walsh stepping down in 2007, O’Sullivan snapped up a seat with a remarkable first preference of 10,333. This time around however, a reinvigorated O’Donovan is on the warpath, in addition to the Labour threat.

Internecine feuds within FF have been part and parcel of general elections in Cork South West for many decades. The rumour machine within FF strongly suggests O’Sullivan tried to impress upon party headquarters the importance of running a sole candidate to maximise the diminishing vote. A last-minute postponement — for two nights —of a selection convention fuelled the rumours and although the local cumann had its day, O’Sullivan and O’Donovan were unopposed on the ticket.

Many of the 400 delegates reported on O’Donovan’s sterling performance during his acceptance speech which indicated he’s up for the fight and not prepared to relinquish FF’s seat to Labour. In the meantime, there is a risk both O’Donovan and O’Sullivan will cannibalise each other’s territories, leaving each other without a solid base to fight for the third seat.

McCarthy, 34, whose transfers influenced the outcome of the third seat in 2007, is making his third Dáil bid. National trends and polls point to Labour securing 25% of the vote in the coastal constituency — with some political pundits predicting McCarthy to top the poll.

To succeed however, he would have to more than double his first preference vote from 2002 but, more importantly, make significant transfer gains to reach the quota.

Unfortunately, the Labour vote-catching machine is not as well-oiled as FF’s or FG’s in the constituency. Labour is conducting a major poster campaign but does not have the bodies on the ground to doorstep voters in a sprawling rural constituency which encompasses three peninsulas and dozens of villages.

On the other hand, FG’s vote management policies have been a key factor for the best part of the last 30 years. However, General Election 2011 will be the first time in seven contests that the party reverts to a three-candidate strategy.

In one sense, it’s high risk but with a large majority of the vote on the eastern side of the constituency, the strategy could also be a body blow to outgoing FF TD, O’Sullivan.

The three new FG faces have served their political apprenticeships on Cork Co Council. Kinsale-based Kevin Murphy, the most senior of the trio, is in renowned Fine Gael heartland and his 3,400 or so votes in the local elections two years ago is a perfect launchpad for a Dáil seat — with other rich pickings assured through neighbouring FG county councillors Veronica Neville and Tim Lombard.

Conversely, for former county mayor Noel Harrington, every vote won will be a hard slog, based, as he is, at the more depopulated, western side of the constituency in the Beara peninsula. To secure a seat, he needs the FG machinery that ensured PJ Sheehan’s many successes since 1981.

In Harrington’s favour is the likelihood FG will lead the next Government. And in an isolated region, having a peninsula man in the Government’s parliamentary party could swing many of the disaffected.

However, FF’s O’Donovan, is equally determined to make sure a seat is destined for the western side of the constituency. The other chief contender, FG’s Jim Daly, had been established as a firm favourite until the party added Murphy to the ticket. Clonakilty- based Daly reportedly has been assured of the goodwill of many of PJ Sheehan’s loyal supporters and, if so, will garner votes throughout the constituency.

A key factor for Daly is that while Christy O’Sullivan’s home base is also Clonakilty, in the past, tallymen from all parties discovered the electorate in the greater Clonakilty area crossed party lines to ensure the town would retain a seat in the Dáil.

Daly, to some degree, may have the upper hand in that regard, as FG prepares to return to power.

O’Sullivan, 62, cannot be dismissed however. Since he came into politics over 12 years ago as an independent, he has commanded respect as a vote catcher. He has, on more than one occasion, defied the pundits at both local and national level.

O’Sullivan has a battle on his hands against FG rival Daly but the battle royal may be fought out with his FF running mate in Bantry, O’Donovan.

It’s also not inconceivable that FF will be consigned to the wilderness in Cork South West — but it will take a ferocious vote drop and much good luck on McCarthy’s side for Labour to win. Sinn Féin’s Paul Hayes together with independents Dave McInerney, Edmund Butler, Michael O’Sullivan, Paul Doonan and John Kearney and Green Party candidate Kevin McCaughey, will not have the troops on the ground to rattle the campaigns of the bigger parties.